Basketball · Germany Bundesliga · 20/09, 18:00

Prediction: Bayern Munich vs Brose Bamberg

Prediction summary

Estimated points

167.1Total

Bayern Munich90.2

Brose Bamberg76.9

1X2

83% 17%

Bayern Munich Brose Bamberg

Markets

Under 168.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Bayern Munich 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Brose Bamberg 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bayern Munich 3–3 Brose Bamberg (6 last)

Bayern Munich98-67Brose Bamberg
Brose Bamberg97-93Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich97-103Brose Bamberg
Bayern Munich96-81Brose Bamberg
Brose Bamberg69-68Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich84-82Brose Bamberg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bayern Munich 1595 · Brose Bamberg 1579

	Bayern Munich	Brose Bamberg
Our model	65%	35%
Market	88%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 167.1 points · Bet365 line 168.5 · -1.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points167.1Bayern Munich 90.2 · Brose Bamberg 76.9

Over / Under 168.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~160.2 pts · strength 8

Match keys

Bayern Munich is a clear favourite (83% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bayern Munich	Brose Bamberg
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.6 / 74.9	85.2 / 84
Points F\|A (Last 5)	82.8 / 83.6	77 / 85.4
Est. result	90	77

Est. total167.1

Line O/U168.5

Diff.1.4

Over / Under30% / 70%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.08

27.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-13.5)1.87

2 (+13.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 168.51.87

Under 168.51.87

Diff.: 3.65 · Est. total: 164.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.08	Bet365 1.08
2	7.75 → 7.75	Bet365 7.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	2
14:48 +4’	1.08	7.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayern Munich 3–0–3 Brose Bamberg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Club Friendlies	Bayern Munich	98-67	Brose Bamberg
15/03/26 Germany Bundesliga	Brose Bamberg	97-93	Bayern Munich
21/02/26 Germany Cup	Bayern Munich	97-103	Brose Bamberg
12/10/25 Germany Bundesliga	Bayern Munich	96-81	Brose Bamberg
11/03/25 Germany Bundesliga	Brose Bamberg	69-68	Bayern Munich
26/01/25 Germany Bundesliga	Bayern Munich	84-82	Brose Bamberg

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alba Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brose Bamberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Braunschweig	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Telekom Bonn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oldenburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bayern Munich	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Trier	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamburg Towers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Syntainics MBC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chemnitz 99	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Phoenix Hagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ludwigsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rostock Seawolves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Vechta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jena	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fraport Skyliners	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ratiopharm Ulm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	S.Oliver Wurzburg	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bayern Munich	Brose Bamberg
Alba Berlin	81-84 L	66-97 L
Telekom Bonn	77-57 W	102-83 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bayern Munich (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bayern Munich

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
21/06	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	81-84	L
19/06	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	61-71	L
17/06	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	91-83	W
14/06	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	79-86	L
12/06	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	102-94	W
04/06	Telekom Bonn Germany Bundesliga	77-57	W
01/06	Telekom Bonn Germany Bundesliga	91-69	W
30/05	Telekom Bonn Germany Bundesliga	83-78	W
23/05	Trier Germany Bundesliga	99-62	W
19/05	Trier Germany Bundesliga	92-65	W

Brose Bamberg

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/06	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	66-97	L
06/06	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	81-67	W
04/06	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	81-73	W
01/06	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	71-85	L
30/05	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	86-105	L
23/05	Ratiopharm Ulm Germany Bundesliga	96-87	W
18/05	Ratiopharm Ulm Germany Bundesliga	90-87	W
16/05	Ratiopharm Ulm Germany Bundesliga	80-74	W
10/05	Telekom Bonn Germany Bundesliga	102-83	W
08/05	Syntainics MBC Germany Bundesliga	99-82	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bayern Munich vs Brose Bamberg?

Our model gives 83% to Bayern Munich.

How many points are expected in Bayern Munich vs Brose Bamberg?

The model estimates 167.1 total points (Bayern Munich 90.2 · Brose Bamberg 76.9).

Over or under 168.5 points?

Recent history points to under 168.5 points (70%).