Basketball · Germany Bundesliga · 27/09, 15:00
Prediction: Trier vs Jena
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Prediction summary
Estimated points
172Total
Trier93.6
Jena78.4
1X2
Trier
Jena
Markets
Under 179.5 points 70%
Recent form · 10 last
Trier
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Jena
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Trier
4–2
Jena
(6 last)
- Jena102-94Trier
- Trier94-95Jena
- Jena75-90Trier
- Trier85-82Jena
- Trier101-74Jena
- Jena85-91Trier
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Trier 1437 · Jena 1450
| Trier | Jena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 92% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
172 points · Bet365 line 179.5 · -7.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points172Trier 93.6 · Jena 78.4
Over / Under 179.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~169.3 pts · strength 10
Match keys
- Trier is a clear favourite (86% market).
- H2H favours Trier: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Trier | Jena | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 83.6 / 94.6 | 74.6 / 84.9 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 84 / 97.6 | 77.8 / 84.4 |
| Est. result | 94 | 78 |
Est. total172
Line O/U179.5
Diff.7.5
Over / Under30% / 70%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Trier 4–0–2 Jena
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Germany Bundesliga | Jena | 102-94 | Trier |
| 19/11/25 Germany Bundesliga | Trier | 94-95 | Jena |
| 31/05/25 Germany Pro A | Jena | 75-90 | Trier |
| 29/05/25 Germany Pro A | Trier | 85-82 | Jena |
| 19/04/25 Germany Pro A | Trier | 101-74 | Jena |
| 26/10/24 Germany Pro A | Jena | 85-91 | Trier |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 2 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 133 | 4 |
| 2 | Oldenburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 173 | 149 | 4 |
| 2 | Ratiopharm Ulm | 2 | 2 | 0 | 179 | 155 | 4 |
| 4 | Ludwigsburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 260 | 4 |
| 5 | Alba Berlin | 3 | 2 | 1 | 244 | 260 | 4 |
| 6 | Braunschweig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 116 | 107 | 2 |
| 7 | Trier | 2 | 1 | 1 | 213 | 196 | 2 |
| 8 | Telekom Bonn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 176 | 178 | 2 |
| 9 | Rostock Seawolves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 180 | 173 | 2 |
| 10 | Fraport Skyliners | 2 | 1 | 1 | 176 | 175 | 2 |
| 11 | Syntainics MBC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 158 | 158 | 2 |
| 12 | Hamburg Towers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 186 | 2 |
| 13 | Brose Bamberg | 3 | 1 | 2 | 276 | 278 | 2 |
| 14 | S.Oliver Wurzburg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 68 | 77 | 0 |
| 15 | Jena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 62 | 77 | 0 |
| 16 | Chemnitz 99 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 172 | 183 | 0 |
| 17 | Phoenix Hagen | 2 | 0 | 2 | 170 | 195 | 0 |
| 18 | SC Vechta | 2 | 0 | 2 | 148 | 201 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Trier | Jena |
|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig | 107-116 L | 82-93 L |
| Rostock Seawolves | 76-69 W | 79-89 L |
| Syntainics MBC | 85-78 W | 62-77 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Trier (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Trier
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Telekom Bonn Germany Bundesliga |
106-80 | W |
| 19/09 | Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga |
107-116 | L |
| 23/05 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga |
62-99 | L |
| 19/05 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga |
65-92 | L |
| 17/05 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga |
80-101 | L |
| 14/05 | Rostock Seawolves Germany Bundesliga |
76-69 | W |
| 12/05 | SC Vechta Germany Bundesliga |
83-111 | L |
| 10/05 | Syntainics MBC Germany Bundesliga |
85-78 | W |
| 08/05 | Telekom Bonn Germany Bundesliga |
77-102 | L |
| 02/05 | Oldenburg Germany Bundesliga |
95-98 | L |
Jena
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Syntainics MBC Germany Bundesliga |
62-77 | L |
| 10/05 | Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga |
65-83 | L |
| 07/05 | Heidelberg Academics Germany Bundesliga |
81-79 | W |
| 02/05 | Rostock Seawolves Germany Bundesliga |
79-89 | L |
| 25/04 | Trier Germany Bundesliga |
102-94 | W |
| 18/04 | Chemnitz 99 Germany Bundesliga |
73-76 | L |
| 14/04 | Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga |
82-93 | L |
| 11/04 | S.Oliver Wurzburg Germany Bundesliga |
69-87 | L |
| 06/04 | Brose Bamberg Germany Bundesliga |
75-81 | L |
| 02/04 | Fraport Skyliners Germany Bundesliga |
58-90 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Trier vs Jena?
Our model gives 86% to Trier.
How many points are expected in Trier vs Jena?
The model estimates 172 total points (Trier 93.6 · Jena 78.4).
Over or under 179.5 points?
Recent history points to under 179.5 points (70%).