Basketball · Germany Bundesliga · 18/09, 20:00
Prediction: Alba Berlin vs Chemnitz 99
Prediction summary
Estimated points
164.7Total
Alba Berlin88.5
Chemnitz 9976.2
1X2
Alba Berlin
Chemnitz 99
Recent form · 10 last
Alba Berlin
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Chemnitz 99
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alba Berlin
4–2
Chemnitz 99
(6 last)
- Alba Berlin82-84Chemnitz 99
- Chemnitz 9985-89Alba Berlin
- Chemnitz 9981-103Alba Berlin
- Alba Berlin78-81Chemnitz 99
- Alba Berlin97-84Chemnitz 99
- Chemnitz 9985-96Alba Berlin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alba Berlin 1580 · Chemnitz 99 1482
| Alba Berlin | Chemnitz 99 | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 25% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
164.7 points · Bet365 line 167.5 · -2.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points164.7Alba Berlin 88.5 · Chemnitz 99 76.2
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alba Berlin (rating 1580 vs 1482).
- Alba Berlin is a clear favourite (81% market).
- H2H favours Alba Berlin: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Alba Berlin | Chemnitz 99 | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 84.5 / 79.9 | 80.3 / 83.5 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 83.6 / 82.8 | 79.6 / 86 |
| Est. result | 89 | 76 |
Est. total164.7
Line O/U167.5
Diff.2.8
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alba Berlin 4–0–2 Chemnitz 99
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Germany Bundesliga | Alba Berlin | 82-84 | Chemnitz 99 |
| 23/11/25 Germany Bundesliga | Chemnitz 99 | 85-89 | Alba Berlin |
| 27/04/25 Germany Bundesliga | Chemnitz 99 | 81-103 | Alba Berlin |
| 20/10/24 Germany Bundesliga | Alba Berlin | 78-81 | Chemnitz 99 |
| 06/06/24 Germany Bundesliga | Alba Berlin | 97-84 | Chemnitz 99 |
| 04/06/24 Germany Bundesliga | Chemnitz 99 | 85-96 | Alba Berlin |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alba Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brose Bamberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Braunschweig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Telekom Bonn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Oldenburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hamburg Towers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Syntainics MBC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chemnitz 99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Phoenix Hagen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ludwigsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rostock Seawolves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SC Vechta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Jena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fraport Skyliners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ratiopharm Ulm | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | S.Oliver Wurzburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alba Berlin | Chemnitz 99 |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 84-81 W | 77-91 L |
| Brose Bamberg | 97-66 W | 62-89 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Alba Berlin (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alba Berlin
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga |
84-81 | W |
| 19/06 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga |
71-61 | W |
| 17/06 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga |
83-91 | L |
| 14/06 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga |
86-79 | W |
| 12/06 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga |
94-102 | L |
| 09/06 | Brose Bamberg Germany Bundesliga |
97-66 | W |
| 06/06 | Brose Bamberg Germany Bundesliga |
67-81 | L |
| 04/06 | Brose Bamberg Germany Bundesliga |
73-81 | L |
| 01/06 | Brose Bamberg Germany Bundesliga |
85-71 | W |
| 30/05 | Brose Bamberg Germany Bundesliga |
105-86 | W |
Chemnitz 99
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05 | Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga |
90-104 | L |
| 07/05 | Fraport Skyliners Germany Bundesliga |
86-82 | W |
| 03/05 | Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga |
84-82 | W |
| 27/04 | Brose Bamberg Germany Bundesliga |
62-89 | L |
| 18/04 | Jena Germany Bundesliga |
76-73 | W |
| 15/04 | Ratiopharm Ulm Germany Bundesliga |
79-66 | W |
| 12/04 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga |
77-91 | L |
| 04/04 | Telekom Bonn Germany Bundesliga |
75-76 | L |
| 01/04 | Ludwigsburg Germany Bundesliga |
79-87 | L |
| 28/03 | Oldenburg Germany Bundesliga |
95-85 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alba Berlin vs Chemnitz 99?
Our model gives 81% to Alba Berlin.
How many points are expected in Alba Berlin vs Chemnitz 99?
The model estimates 164.7 total points (Alba Berlin 88.5 · Chemnitz 99 76.2).