Basketball · Germany Bundesliga · 20/09, 16:30

Prediction: Ratiopharm Ulm vs Ludwigsburg

Prediction summary

Estimated points

162.4Total

Ratiopharm Ulm81.9

Ludwigsburg80.5

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

54% 46%

Ratiopharm Ulm Ludwigsburg

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Under 170.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Ratiopharm Ulm 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Ludwigsburg 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Ratiopharm Ulm 3–3 Ludwigsburg (6 last)

Ratiopharm Ulm93-76Ludwigsburg
Ludwigsburg90-81Ratiopharm Ulm
Ludwigsburg92-71Ratiopharm Ulm
Ratiopharm Ulm63-62Ludwigsburg
Ludwigsburg60-94Ratiopharm Ulm
Ratiopharm Ulm70-99Ludwigsburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ratiopharm Ulm 1457 · Ludwigsburg 1478

	Ratiopharm Ulm	Ludwigsburg
Our model	60%	40%
Market	53%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 162.4 points · Bet365 line 170.5 · -8.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points162.4Ratiopharm Ulm 81.9 · Ludwigsburg 80.5

Over / Under 170.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~161.8 pts · strength 9

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Ratiopharm Ulm	Ludwigsburg
Points F\|A (Last 10)	80.7 / 82.5	76.1 / 84.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	87 / 85.6	75.8 / 82.2
Est. result	82	81

Est. total162.4

Line O/U170.5

Diff.8.1

Over / Under30% / 70%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.77

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.87

2 (+1.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 170.51.87

Under 170.51.87

Diff.: 8.4 · Est. total: 162.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.77 → 1.77	Bet365 1.77
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	2
14:47 +4’	1.77	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ratiopharm Ulm 3–0–3 Ludwigsburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Germany Bundesliga	Ratiopharm Ulm	93-76	Ludwigsburg
26/10/25 Germany Bundesliga	Ludwigsburg	90-81	Ratiopharm Ulm
02/02/25 Germany Bundesliga	Ludwigsburg	92-71	Ratiopharm Ulm
05/10/24 Germany Bundesliga	Ratiopharm Ulm	63-62	Ludwigsburg
31/03/24 Germany Bundesliga	Ludwigsburg	60-94	Ratiopharm Ulm
28/10/23 Germany Bundesliga	Ratiopharm Ulm	70-99	Ludwigsburg

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alba Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brose Bamberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Braunschweig	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Telekom Bonn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oldenburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bayern Munich	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Trier	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamburg Towers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Syntainics MBC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chemnitz 99	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Phoenix Hagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ludwigsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rostock Seawolves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Vechta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jena	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fraport Skyliners	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ratiopharm Ulm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	S.Oliver Wurzburg	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ratiopharm Ulm	Ludwigsburg
S.Oliver Wurzburg	84-98 L	58-75 L
Alba Berlin	77-89 L	77-101 L
Rostock Seawolves	75-68 W	71-91 L
Chemnitz 99	66-79 L	87-79 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ratiopharm Ulm (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ratiopharm Ulm

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/05	Brose Bamberg Germany Bundesliga	87-96	L
18/05	Brose Bamberg Germany Bundesliga	87-90	L
16/05	Brose Bamberg Germany Bundesliga	74-80	L
10/05	Fraport Skyliners Germany Bundesliga	103-64	W
02/05	S.Oliver Wurzburg Germany Bundesliga	84-98	L
25/04	Hamburg Towers Germany Bundesliga	81-72	W
22/04	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	77-89	L
19/04	Rostock Seawolves Germany Bundesliga	75-68	W
15/04	Chemnitz 99 Germany Bundesliga	66-79	L
11/04	Brose Bamberg Germany Bundesliga	73-89	L

Ludwigsburg

WLLLWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/05	Rostock Seawolves Germany Bundesliga	71-91	L
10/05	S.Oliver Wurzburg Germany Bundesliga	58-75	L
07/05	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga	78-86	L
02/05	Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga	97-98	L
25/04	Rostock Seawolves Germany Bundesliga	75-61	W
18/04	Heidelberg Academics Germany Bundesliga	83-73	W
14/04	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga	59-93	L
11/04	Alba Berlin Germany Bundesliga	77-101	L
06/04	Trier Germany Bundesliga	76-92	L
01/04	Chemnitz 99 Germany Bundesliga	87-79	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ratiopharm Ulm vs Ludwigsburg?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Ratiopharm Ulm 54% · Ludwigsburg 46%).

How many points are expected in Ratiopharm Ulm vs Ludwigsburg?

The model estimates 162.4 total points (Ratiopharm Ulm 81.9 · Ludwigsburg 80.5).

Over or under 170.5 points?

Recent history points to under 170.5 points (70%).