Basketball · Brazil FPB · 09/08, 22:00
Prediction: Mogi das Cruzes vs Paulistano
Team pages: Mogi das Cruzes · Paulistano
Prediction summary
Estimated points
153.8Total
Mogi das Cruzes84.5
Paulistano69.3
1X2
Mogi das Cruzes
Paulistano
Recent form · 10 last
Mogi das Cruzes
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Paulistano
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mogi das Cruzes
4–2
Paulistano
(6 last)
- Mogi das Cruzes84-70Paulistano
- Paulistano81-66Mogi das Cruzes
- Mogi das Cruzes86-67Paulistano
- Mogi das Cruzes65-61Paulistano
- Paulistano74-63Mogi das Cruzes
- Paulistano58-61Mogi das Cruzes
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mogi das Cruzes 1547 · Paulistano 1482
| Mogi das Cruzes | Paulistano | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 89% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
153.8 points · Bet365 line 153.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points153.8Mogi das Cruzes 84.5 · Paulistano 69.3
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mogi das Cruzes (rating 1547 vs 1482).
- Mogi das Cruzes is a clear favourite (86% market).
- H2H favours Mogi das Cruzes: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Mogi das Cruzes | Paulistano | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 81 / 80.5 | 80.1 / 80.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 81.4 / 84.2 | 77.8 / 80.4 |
| Est. result | 85 | 69 |
Est. total153.8
Line O/U153.5
Diff.0.3
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mogi das Cruzes 4–0–2 Paulistano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/26 Brazil NBB | Mogi das Cruzes | 84-70 | Paulistano |
| 27/12/25 Brazil NBB | Paulistano | 81-66 | Mogi das Cruzes |
| 25/09/25 Brazil FPB | Mogi das Cruzes | 86-67 | Paulistano |
| 24/09/25 Brazil FPB | Mogi das Cruzes | 65-61 | Paulistano |
| 21/09/25 Brazil FPB | Paulistano | 74-63 | Mogi das Cruzes |
| 21/08/25 Brazil FPB | Paulistano | 58-61 | Mogi das Cruzes |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mogi das Cruzes | Paulistano |
|---|---|---|
| Pinheiros | 93-68 W | 74-84 L |
| Sao Jose | 81-70 W | 84-79 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Mogi das Cruzes (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mogi das Cruzes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Pinheiros Brazil FPB |
93-68 | W |
| 16/05 | Franca Brazil NBB |
77-78 | L |
| 14/05 | Franca Brazil NBB |
102-90 | W |
| 10/05 | Franca Brazil NBB |
70-88 | L |
| 09/05 | Franca Brazil NBB |
65-97 | L |
| 06/05 | Franca Brazil NBB |
95-93 | W |
| 28/04 | Sao Jose Brazil NBB |
81-70 | W |
| 25/04 | Sao Jose Brazil NBB |
79-75 | W |
| 23/04 | Sao Jose Brazil NBB |
75-70 | W |
| 18/04 | Osasco Brazil NBB |
73-76 | L |
Paulistano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Sao Jose Brazil FPB |
84-79 | W |
| 10/05 | Pinheiros Brazil NBB |
74-84 | L |
| 08/05 | Pinheiros Brazil NBB |
68-76 | L |
| 05/05 | Pinheiros Brazil NBB |
92-101 | L |
| 30/04 | Bauru Brazil NBB |
71-62 | W |
| 26/04 | Bauru Brazil NBB |
75-88 | L |
| 25/04 | Bauru Brazil NBB |
95-80 | W |
| 22/04 | Bauru Brazil NBB |
80-77 | W |
| 18/04 | Pato Basquete Brazil NBB |
92-71 | W |
| 16/04 | Mogi das Cruzes Brazil NBB |
70-84 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mogi das Cruzes vs Paulistano?
Our model gives 86% to Mogi das Cruzes.
How many points are expected in Mogi das Cruzes vs Paulistano?
The model estimates 153.8 total points (Mogi das Cruzes 84.5 · Paulistano 69.3).