Basketball · Chile LNB · 20/07, 01:30
Prediction: CD Castro vs Puerto Varas
Prediction summary
Estimated points
162Total
CD Castro77.9
Puerto Varas84.1
1X2
CD Castro
Puerto Varas
Recent form · 10 last
CD Castro
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Puerto Varas
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Castro
2–4
Puerto Varas
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Castro 1412 · Puerto Varas 1516
| CD Castro | Puerto Varas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
Estimated total (ours)
162 points · Bet365 line 161.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points162CD Castro 77.9 · Puerto Varas 84.1
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Puerto Varas (rating 1412 vs 1516).
- Puerto Varas is a clear favourite (67% market).
- H2H favours Puerto Varas: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| CD Castro | Puerto Varas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 76.9 / 93.4 | 73.5 / 77.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 71.8 / 92.4 | 67.4 / 79.8 |
| Est. result | 78 | 84 |
Est. total162
Line O/U161.5
Diff.0.5
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Castro 2–0–4 Puerto Varas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/26 Chile LNB | CD Castro | 93-95 | Puerto Varas |
| 06/04/26 Chile LNB | Puerto Varas | 103-89 | CD Castro |
| 21/04/24 Chile LNB | CD Castro | 61-54 | Puerto Varas |
| 27/01/24 Chile LNB | Puerto Varas | 75-91 | CD Castro |
| 26/11/23 Chile LNB Cup | Puerto Varas | 81-75 | CD Castro |
| 16/11/23 Chile LNB Cup | CD Castro | 57-63 | Puerto Varas |
Standings · Chile LNB · Clausura, Conference South
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Valdivia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 295 | 214 | 6 |
| 2 | Las Animas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 264 | 222 | 5 |
| 3 | Espanol Osorno | 3 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 269 | 5 |
| 4 | ABA Ancud | 3 | 1 | 2 | 251 | 268 | 4 |
| 5 | Puerto Varas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 221 | 268 | 4 |
| 6 | CD Castro | 3 | 1 | 2 | 219 | 258 | 4 |
| 7 | Puerto Montt | 2 | 0 | 2 | 165 | 177 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Castro | Puerto Varas |
|---|---|---|
| Las Animas | 87-76 W | 51-97 L |
| Espanol Osorno | 78-92 L | 55-69 L |
| Puerto Montt | 86-89 L | 86-81 W |
| ABA Ancud | 85-104 L | 84-90 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Puerto Varas (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Castro
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Las Animas Chile LNB |
87-76 | W |
| 13/07 | Espanol Osorno Chile LNB |
78-92 | L |
| 12/07 | Deportivo Valdivia Chile LNB |
54-90 | L |
| 11/05 | Las Animas Chile LNB |
69-92 | L |
| 08/05 | Las Animas Chile LNB |
71-112 | L |
| 04/05 | Puerto Montt Chile LNB |
86-89 | L |
| 02/05 | ABA Ancud Chile LNB |
85-104 | L |
| 27/04 | Puerto Varas Chile LNB |
93-95 | L |
| 26/04 | Las Animas Chile LNB |
71-86 | L |
| 20/04 | Espanol Osorno Chile LNB |
75-98 | L |
Puerto Varas
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | ABA Ancud Chile LNB |
84-90 | L |
| 14/07 | Puerto Montt Chile LNB |
86-81 | W |
| 10/07 | Las Animas Chile LNB |
51-97 | L |
| 09/06 | Espanol Osorno Chile LNB |
55-69 | L |
| 06/06 | Espanol Osorno Chile LNB |
61-62 | L |
| 05/06 | Espanol Osorno Chile LNB |
87-83 | W |
| 30/05 | Espanol Osorno Chile LNB |
63-60 | W |
| 29/05 | Espanol Osorno Chile LNB |
75-81 | L |
| 24/05 | Las Animas Chile LNB |
79-72 | W |
| 23/05 | Las Animas Chile LNB |
94-76 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Castro vs Puerto Varas?
Our model gives 67% to Puerto Varas.
How many points are expected in CD Castro vs Puerto Varas?
The model estimates 162 total points (CD Castro 77.9 · Puerto Varas 84.1).