Basketball · Chile LNB · 27/07, 01:30

Prediction: CD Castro vs Puerto Montt

Prediction summary

Estimated points

168.6Total

CD Castro86.3

Puerto Montt82.4

1X2

61% 39%

CD Castro Puerto Montt

Recent form · 10 last

CD Castro 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWLW

Puerto Montt 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

CD Castro 3–3 Puerto Montt (6 last)

CD Castro86-89Puerto Montt
Puerto Montt101-105CD Castro
CD Castro86-63Puerto Montt
Puerto Montt77-76CD Castro
Puerto Montt99-93CD Castro
CD Castro82-66Puerto Montt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Castro 1446 · Puerto Montt 1394

	CD Castro	Puerto Montt
Our model	69%	31%
Market	59%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 168.6 points · Bet365 line 165.5 · +3.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points168.6CD Castro 86.3 · Puerto Montt 82.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Castro (rating 1446 vs 1394).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	CD Castro	Puerto Montt
Points F\|A (Last 10)	76.8 / 90	76 / 89.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	72.8 / 81.6	73.2 / 93
Est. result	86	82

Est. total168.6

Line O/U165.5

Diff.3.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.57

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.83

2 (+2.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 165.51.83

Under 165.51.83

Diff.: 0.55 · Est. total: 166.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.66 ★
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	2
14:44 +1’	1.57	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
13:44	1.66	1.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Castro 3–0–3 Puerto Montt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Chile LNB	CD Castro	86-89	Puerto Montt
13/04/26 Chile LNB	Puerto Montt	101-105	CD Castro
22/04/24 Chile LNB	CD Castro	86-63	Puerto Montt
28/01/24 Chile LNB	Puerto Montt	77-76	CD Castro
26/11/23 Chile LNB Cup	Puerto Montt	99-93	CD Castro
22/11/23 Chile LNB Cup	CD Castro	82-66	Puerto Montt

Standings · Chile LNB · Clausura, Conference South

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Espanol Osorno	5	4	1	438	424	9
2	ABA Ancud	6	3	3	506	503	9
3	Deportivo Valdivia	4	4	0	380	282	8
4	Las Animas	5	2	3	437	410	7
5	CD Castro	5	2	3	364	408	7
6	Puerto Varas	5	2	3	366	422	7
7	Puerto Montt Basquetbol	4	0	4	306	348	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Castro	Puerto Montt
ABA Ancud	76-73 W	88-90 L
Puerto Varas	69-77 L	81-86 L
Las Animas	87-76 W	84-91 L
Espanol Osorno	78-92 L	67-79 L
Deportivo Valdivia	54-90 L	70-88 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Puerto Montt (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Castro

LLLLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/07	ABA Ancud Chile LNB	76-73	W
20/07	Puerto Varas Chile LNB	69-77	L
19/07	Las Animas Chile LNB	87-76	W
13/07	Espanol Osorno Chile LNB	78-92	L
12/07	Deportivo Valdivia Chile LNB	54-90	L
11/05	Las Animas Chile LNB	69-92	L
08/05	Las Animas Chile LNB	71-112	L
04/05	Puerto Montt Chile LNB	86-89	L
02/05	ABA Ancud Chile LNB	85-104	L
27/04	Puerto Varas Chile LNB	93-95	L

Puerto Montt

LLLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/07	Deportivo Valdivia Chile LNB	70-88	L
14/07	Puerto Varas Chile LNB	81-86	L
12/07	Las Animas Chile LNB	84-91	L
10/05	Deportivo Valdivia Chile LNB	75-97	L
07/05	Deportivo Valdivia Chile LNB	56-103	L
04/05	CD Castro Chile LNB	89-86	W
30/04	ABA Ancud Chile LNB	88-90	L
27/04	Espanol Osorno Chile LNB	67-79	L
23/04	Deportivo Valdivia Chile LNB	72-82	L
18/04	Las Animas Chile LNB	78-91	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Castro vs Puerto Montt?

Our model gives 61% to CD Castro.

How many points are expected in CD Castro vs Puerto Montt?

The model estimates 168.6 total points (CD Castro 86.3 · Puerto Montt 82.4).