Basketball · Japan B League Premier · 01/11, 06:05

Prediction: Kobe Storks vs Nagasaki Velca

Team pages: Kobe Storks · Nagasaki Velca

Prediction summary

Estimated points

160Total

Kobe Storks78.1

Nagasaki Velca82

1X2

39% 61%

Kobe Storks Nagasaki Velca

Recent form · 10 last

Kobe Storks 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLLL

Nagasaki Velca 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Kobe Storks 3–3 Nagasaki Velca (6 last)

Kobe Storks71-81Nagasaki Velca
Nagasaki Velca85-69Kobe Storks
Nagasaki Velca91-97Kobe Storks
Nagasaki Velca86-76Kobe Storks
Kobe Storks94-78Nagasaki Velca
Kobe Storks100-95Nagasaki Velca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kobe Storks 1409 · Nagasaki Velca 1508

	Kobe Storks	Nagasaki Velca
Our model	49%	51%
Market	37%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 160 points · Bet365 line 158.5 · +1.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points160Kobe Storks 78.1 · Nagasaki Velca 82

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nagasaki Velca (rating 1409 vs 1508).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Kobe Storks	Nagasaki Velca
Points F\|A (Last 10)	78.3 / 87.5	77.3 / 77.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	79.6 / 88.2	83.2 / 78.4
Est. result	78	82

Est. total160

Line O/U158.5

Diff.1.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.55

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4.5)1.83

2 (-4.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 158.51.83

Under 158.51.83

Diff.: 1.85 · Est. total: 160.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.82 ★
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	2
16:34 +2’	2.55	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:57 +39’	2.82	1.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kobe Storks 3–0–3 Nagasaki Velca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/10/26 Japan B League Premier	Kobe Storks	71-81	Nagasaki Velca
12/10/26 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	85-69	Kobe Storks
01/01/23 Japan B League One	Nagasaki Velca	91-97	Kobe Storks
31/12/22 Japan B League One	Nagasaki Velca	86-76	Kobe Storks
23/10/22 Japan B League One	Kobe Storks	94-78	Nagasaki Velca
22/10/22 Japan B League One	Kobe Storks	100-95	Nagasaki Velca

Standings · Japan B League Premier · Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Nagoya Diamond Dolphins	9	9	0	838	672
2	Hiroshima Dragonflies	12	11	1	1111	962
3	Mikawa Seahorses	9	7	2	821	704
4	San En Neo Phoenix	8	6	2	690	640
5	Kyoto Hannaryz	11	8	3	950	855
6	Ryukyu Golden Kings	12	7	5	1020	973
7	Nagasaki Velca	13	6	7	991	1034
8	Shiga Lakes	11	5	6	962	985
9	Shimane Susanoo Magic	11	4	7	901	919
10	Shinshu Brave Warriors	13	4	9	1098	1138
11	Kobe Storks	12	2	10	936	1032
12	Saga Ballooners	12	1	11	914	1138
13	Osaka Evessa	12	1	11	822	1070

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kobe Storks	Nagasaki Velca
Shinshu Brave Warriors	87-97 L	74-71 W
Shiga Lakes	80-92 L	85-89 L
Saga Ballooners	77-84 L	84-66 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nagasaki Velca (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kobe Storks

LLWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Nagasaki Velca Japan B League Premier	71-81	L
26/10	Shinshu Brave Warriors Japan B League Premier	87-97	L
24/10	San En Neo Phoenix Japan B League Premier	89-91	L
21/10	Shiga Lakes Japan B League Premier	80-92	L
19/10	Sendai 89ers Japan B League Premier	71-80	L
12/10	Nagasaki Velca Japan B League Premier	69-85	L
10/10	Saga Ballooners Japan B League Premier	77-84	L
08/10	Chiba Jets Japan B League Premier	94-86	W
04/10	Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League Premier	72-83	L
02/10	Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League Premier	73-96	L

Nagasaki Velca

LWWWLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier	81-71	W
26/10	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League Premier	101-84	W
23/10	Shiga Lakes Japan B League Premier	85-89	L
21/10	Saga Ballooners Japan B League Premier	84-66	W
19/10	Altiri Chiba Japan B League Premier	65-82	L
17/10	Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League Premier	63-95	L
12/10	Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier	85-69	W
10/10	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier	70-59	W
08/10	Shinshu Brave Warriors Japan B League Premier	74-71	W
04/10	Kyoto Hannaryz Japan B League Premier	65-90	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kobe Storks vs Nagasaki Velca?

Our model gives 61% to Nagasaki Velca.

How many points are expected in Kobe Storks vs Nagasaki Velca?

The model estimates 160 total points (Kobe Storks 78.1 · Nagasaki Velca 82).