Basketball · Australia NBL1 West · 12/07, 06:00
Prediction: Warwick Senators vs Geraldton Buccaneers
Prediction summary
Estimated points
189.7Total
Warwick Senators88.7
Geraldton Buccaneers101
1X2
Warwick Senators
Geraldton Buccaneers
Recent form · 10 last
Warwick Senators
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Geraldton Buccaneers
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Warwick Senators
1–5
Geraldton Buccaneers
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Warwick Senators 1426 · Geraldton Buccaneers 1591
| Warwick Senators | Geraldton Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
Estimated total (ours)
189.7 points · Bet365 line 192.5 · -2.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points189.7Warwick Senators 88.7 · Geraldton Buccaneers 101
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Geraldton Buccaneers (rating 1426 vs 1591).
- Geraldton Buccaneers is a clear favourite (81% market).
- H2H favours Geraldton Buccaneers: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Warwick Senators | Geraldton Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 90.3 / 104.4 | 97.5 / 85.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 94.8 / 103 | 101.4 / 89.4 |
| Est. result | 89 | 101 |
Est. total189.7
Line O/U192.5
Diff.2.8
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Warwick Senators 1–0–5 Geraldton Buccaneers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Australia NBL1 West | Geraldton Buccaneers | 108-88 | Warwick Senators |
| 23/08/25 Australia NBL1 West | Geraldton Buccaneers | 81-78 | Warwick Senators |
| 09/08/25 Australia NBL1 West | Geraldton Buccaneers | 84-115 | Warwick Senators |
| 13/07/25 Australia NBL1 West | Warwick Senators | 98-118 | Geraldton Buccaneers |
| 24/05/25 Australia NBL1 West | Geraldton Buccaneers | 100-87 | Warwick Senators |
| 08/06/24 Australia NBL1 West | Geraldton Buccaneers | 106-77 | Warwick Senators |
Standings · Australia NBL1 West
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geraldton Buccaneers | 18 | 15 | 3 | 1764 | 1552 | 0 |
| 2 | Rockingham Flames | 20 | 16 | 4 | 2102 | 1754 | 0 |
| 3 | Joondalup Wolves | 20 | 14 | 6 | 1976 | 1821 | 0 |
| 4 | Cockburn Cougars | 19 | 13 | 6 | 1844 | 1686 | 0 |
| 5 | Kalamunda Eastern Suns | 20 | 12 | 8 | 1862 | 1853 | 0 |
| 6 | Willetton Tigers | 19 | 11 | 8 | 1863 | 1832 | 0 |
| 7 | Perry Lakes Hawks | 18 | 9 | 9 | 1747 | 1728 | 0 |
| 8 | East Perth Eagles | 19 | 9 | 10 | 1708 | 1741 | 0 |
| 9 | Lakeside Lightning | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1693 | 1782 | 0 |
| 10 | Perth Redbacks | 18 | 7 | 11 | 1725 | 1797 | 0 |
| 11 | Mandurah Magic | 19 | 7 | 12 | 1780 | 1860 | 0 |
| 12 | Goldfields Giants | 18 | 5 | 13 | 1530 | 1674 | 0 |
| 13 | Warwick Senators | 18 | 5 | 13 | 1621 | 1835 | 0 |
| 14 | South West Slammers | 20 | 2 | 18 | 1657 | 1957 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Warwick Senators | Geraldton Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Willetton Tigers | 89-100 L | 118-92 W |
| Kalamunda Eastern Suns | 99-120 L | 103-95 W |
| Goldfields Giants | 95-85 W | 47-32 W |
| Joondalup Wolves | 84-113 L | 108-90 W |
| Rockingham Flames | 68-100 L | 102-93 W |
| Cockburn Cougars | 85-112 L | 94-84 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Geraldton Buccaneers (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Warwick Senators
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Willetton Tigers Australia NBL1 West |
89-100 | L |
| 04/07 | South West Slammers Australia NBL1 West |
109-110 | L |
| 27/06 | Mandurah Magic Australia NBL1 West |
82-100 | L |
| 19/06 | Kalamunda Eastern Suns Australia NBL1 West |
99-120 | L |
| 13/06 | Goldfields Giants Australia NBL1 West |
95-85 | W |
| 05/06 | Joondalup Wolves Australia NBL1 West |
84-113 | L |
| 31/05 | Geraldton Buccaneers Australia NBL1 West |
88-108 | L |
| 29/05 | Mandurah Magic Australia NBL1 West |
104-96 | W |
| 23/05 | Rockingham Flames Australia NBL1 West |
68-100 | L |
| 16/05 | Cockburn Cougars Australia NBL1 West |
85-112 | L |
Geraldton Buccaneers
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Cockburn Cougars Australia NBL1 West |
94-84 | W |
| 05/07 | Willetton Tigers Australia NBL1 West |
118-92 | W |
| 04/07 | Rockingham Flames Australia NBL1 West |
102-93 | W |
| 27/06 | Perth Redbacks Australia NBL1 West |
118-86 | W |
| 21/06 | Rockingham Flames Australia NBL1 West |
75-92 | L |
| 20/06 | Kalamunda Eastern Suns Australia NBL1 West |
103-95 | W |
| 13/06 | Joondalup Wolves Australia NBL1 West |
108-90 | W |
| 31/05 | Warwick Senators Australia NBL1 West |
108-88 | W |
| 30/05 | Goldfields Giants Australia NBL1 West |
47-32 | W |
| 24/05 | Lakeside Lightning Australia NBL1 West |
102-100 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Warwick Senators vs Geraldton Buccaneers?
Our model gives 81% to Geraldton Buccaneers.
How many points are expected in Warwick Senators vs Geraldton Buccaneers?
The model estimates 189.7 total points (Warwick Senators 88.7 · Geraldton Buccaneers 101).