Basketball · Australia NBL1 West · 18/07, 13:30
Prediction: Cockburn Cougars vs Perth Redbacks
Prediction summary
Estimated points
192.4Total
Cockburn Cougars102.3
Perth Redbacks90
1X2
Cockburn Cougars
Perth Redbacks
Recent form · 10 last
Cockburn Cougars
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Perth Redbacks
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cockburn Cougars
3–3
Perth Redbacks
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cockburn Cougars 1543 · Perth Redbacks 1457
| Cockburn Cougars | Perth Redbacks | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 27% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
192.4 points · Bet365 line 193.5 · -1.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points192.4Cockburn Cougars 102.3 · Perth Redbacks 90
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cockburn Cougars (rating 1543 vs 1457).
- Cockburn Cougars is a clear favourite (81% market).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Cockburn Cougars | Perth Redbacks | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 97.1 / 92.2 | 93.4 / 99.6 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 99.6 / 93.6 | 99.2 / 105.6 |
| Est. result | 102 | 90 |
Est. total192.4
Line O/U193.5
Diff.1.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cockburn Cougars 3–0–3 Perth Redbacks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/26 Australia NBL1 West | Perth Redbacks | 84-106 | Cockburn Cougars |
| 03/05/25 Australia NBL1 West | Perth Redbacks | 87-90 | Cockburn Cougars |
| 10/05/24 Australia NBL1 West | Cockburn Cougars | 83-90 | Perth Redbacks |
| 01/07/23 Australia NBL1 West | Cockburn Cougars | 102-106 | Perth Redbacks |
| 19/05/23 Australia NBL1 West | Perth Redbacks | 82-78 | Cockburn Cougars |
| 28/05/22 Australia NBL1 West | Cockburn Cougars | 125-81 | Perth Redbacks |
Standings · Australia NBL1 West
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geraldton Buccaneers | 19 | 16 | 3 | 1875 | 1616 | 0 |
| 2 | Rockingham Flames | 20 | 16 | 4 | 2102 | 1754 | 0 |
| 3 | Joondalup Wolves | 20 | 14 | 6 | 1976 | 1821 | 0 |
| 4 | Cockburn Cougars | 19 | 13 | 6 | 1844 | 1686 | 0 |
| 5 | Willetton Tigers | 20 | 12 | 8 | 1963 | 1921 | 0 |
| 6 | Kalamunda Eastern Suns | 20 | 12 | 8 | 1862 | 1853 | 0 |
| 7 | Perry Lakes Hawks | 19 | 10 | 9 | 1851 | 1803 | 0 |
| 8 | East Perth Eagles | 20 | 10 | 10 | 1816 | 1828 | 0 |
| 9 | Lakeside Lightning | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1693 | 1782 | 0 |
| 10 | Mandurah Magic | 19 | 7 | 12 | 1780 | 1860 | 0 |
| 11 | Perth Redbacks | 19 | 7 | 12 | 1812 | 1905 | 0 |
| 12 | Goldfields Giants | 19 | 5 | 14 | 1605 | 1778 | 0 |
| 13 | Warwick Senators | 20 | 5 | 15 | 1774 | 2046 | 0 |
| 14 | South West Slammers | 20 | 2 | 18 | 1657 | 1957 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cockburn Cougars | Perth Redbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Perry Lakes Hawks | 81-105 L | 117-108 W |
| Geraldton Buccaneers | 84-94 L | 86-118 L |
| South West Slammers | 95-78 W | 92-81 W |
| Mandurah Magic | 117-109 W | 104-102 W |
| Kalamunda Eastern Suns | 121-82 W | 102-92 W |
| Lakeside Lightning | 103-90 W | 87-91 L |
| Joondalup Wolves | 87-90 L | 94-107 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Cockburn Cougars (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cockburn Cougars
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Perry Lakes Hawks Australia NBL1 West |
81-105 | L |
| 11/07 | Geraldton Buccaneers Australia NBL1 West |
84-94 | L |
| 10/07 | South West Slammers Australia NBL1 West |
95-78 | W |
| 03/07 | Mandurah Magic Australia NBL1 West |
117-109 | W |
| 27/06 | Kalamunda Eastern Suns Australia NBL1 West |
121-82 | W |
| 20/06 | Willetton Tigers Australia NBL1 West |
103-84 | W |
| 19/06 | Lakeside Lightning Australia NBL1 West |
103-90 | W |
| 12/06 | Rockingham Flames Australia NBL1 West |
89-108 | L |
| 06/06 | Goldfields Giants Australia NBL1 West |
91-82 | W |
| 29/05 | Joondalup Wolves Australia NBL1 West |
87-90 | L |
Perth Redbacks
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Mandurah Magic Australia NBL1 West |
104-102 | W |
| 11/07 | East Perth Eagles Australia NBL1 West |
87-108 | L |
| 10/07 | Kalamunda Eastern Suns Australia NBL1 West |
102-92 | W |
| 04/07 | Perry Lakes Hawks Australia NBL1 West |
117-108 | W |
| 27/06 | Geraldton Buccaneers Australia NBL1 West |
86-118 | L |
| 20/06 | Joondalup Wolves Australia NBL1 West |
94-107 | L |
| 13/06 | Lakeside Lightning Australia NBL1 West |
87-91 | L |
| 12/06 | Kalamunda Eastern Suns Australia NBL1 West |
82-99 | L |
| 05/06 | South West Slammers Australia NBL1 West |
92-81 | W |
| 30/05 | East Perth Eagles Australia NBL1 West |
83-90 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cockburn Cougars vs Perth Redbacks?
Our model gives 81% to Cockburn Cougars.
How many points are expected in Cockburn Cougars vs Perth Redbacks?
The model estimates 192.4 total points (Cockburn Cougars 102.3 · Perth Redbacks 90).