Basketball · Australia NBL1 East · 18/07, 11:00

Prediction: Sutherland Sharks vs Norths Bears

Prediction summary

Estimated points

172.4Total

Sutherland Sharks86.4

Norths Bears86

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

51% 49%

Sutherland Sharks Norths Bears

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Sutherland Sharks 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Norths Bears 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sutherland Sharks 1–5 Norths Bears (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sutherland Sharks 1611 · Norths Bears 1571

	Sutherland Sharks	Norths Bears
Our model	68%	32%
Market	47%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 172.4 points · Bet365 line 167.5 · +4.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points172.4Sutherland Sharks 86.4 · Norths Bears 86

Match keys

H2H favours Norths Bears: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Sutherland Sharks	Norths Bears
Points F\|A (Last 10)	94.3 / 77.3	91.5 / 80.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	96.2 / 72.4	92.2 / 73.4
Est. result	86	86

Est. total172.4

Line O/U167.5

Diff.4.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.95

21.74

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.83

2 (-3.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 167.51.83

Under 167.51.83

Diff.: 4.3 · Est. total: 171.8

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.17 ★
2	1.74 → 1.74	Bet365 1.74

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 9.5%

Time*	1	2
14:44 +2’	1.95	1.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
14:45 +1’	2.17	1.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sutherland Sharks 1–0–5 Norths Bears

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia NBL1 East	Norths Bears	83-73	Sutherland Sharks
27/04/25 Australia NBL1 East	Norths Bears	84-75	Sutherland Sharks
05/07/24 Australia NBL1 East	Sutherland Sharks	80-88	Norths Bears
28/04/24 Australia NBL1 East	Norths Bears	78-62	Sutherland Sharks
29/07/23 Australia NBL1 East	Norths Bears	66-85	Sutherland Sharks
17/06/23 Australia NBL1 East	Sutherland Sharks	76-78	Norths Bears

Standings · Australia NBL1 East

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Norths Bears	19	16	3	1697	1456
2	Illawarra Hawks NBL1	18	14	4	1751	1526
3	Manly Warringah Sea Eagles	19	13	6	1580	1440
4	Sutherland Sharks	18	12	6	1599	1468
5	BA Coe	20	13	7	1669	1499
6	Maitland Mustangs	18	11	7	1590	1447
7	Canberra Gunners	19	11	8	1592	1529
8	Newcastle Falcons	19	9	10	1466	1526
9	Central Coast Crusaders	19	9	10	1618	1665
10	Sydney Comets	19	8	11	1474	1504
11	Inner West Bulls	19	8	11	1515	1634
12	Hills Hornets	19	8	11	1485	1575
13	Bankstown Bruins	18	7	11	1581	1663
14	Hornsby Spiders	19	6	13	1574	1687
15	Penrith Panthers	18	3	15	1325	1557
16	Albury Wodonga Bandits	19	2	17	1543	1883

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sutherland Sharks	Norths Bears
Penrith Panthers	104-55 W	85-79 W
Inner West Bulls	97-69 W	114-72 W
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles	88-63 W	91-74 W
Canberra Gunners	100-87 W	81-70 W
BA Coe	115-88 W	61-87 L
Hornsby Spiders	87-95 L	102-96 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sutherland Sharks (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sutherland Sharks

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/07	Penrith Panthers Australia NBL1 East	104-55	W
11/07	Illawarra Hawks NBL1 Australia NBL1 East	92-88	W
05/07	Inner West Bulls Australia NBL1 East	97-69	W
04/07	Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Australia NBL1 East	88-63	W
27/06	Canberra Gunners Australia NBL1 East	100-87	W
21/06	Hills Hornets Australia NBL1 East	80-73	W
20/06	BA Coe Australia NBL1 East	115-88	W
14/06	Canberra Gunners Australia NBL1 East	78-75	W
13/06	Hornsby Spiders Australia NBL1 East	87-95	L
31/05	Penrith Panthers Australia NBL1 East	102-80	W

Norths Bears

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/07	Inner West Bulls Australia NBL1 East	114-72	W
10/07	Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Australia NBL1 East	91-74	W
04/07	Canberra Gunners Australia NBL1 East	81-70	W
27/06	Bankstown Bruins Australia NBL1 East	88-89	L
20/06	Sydney Comets Australia NBL1 East	87-62	W
13/06	Penrith Panthers Australia NBL1 East	85-79	W
30/05	Maitland Mustangs Australia NBL1 East	99-86	W
23/05	BA Coe Australia NBL1 East	61-87	L
16/05	Central Coast Crusaders Australia NBL1 East	107-90	W
10/05	Hornsby Spiders Australia NBL1 East	102-96	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sutherland Sharks vs Norths Bears?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Sutherland Sharks 51% · Norths Bears 49%).

How many points are expected in Sutherland Sharks vs Norths Bears?

The model estimates 172.4 total points (Sutherland Sharks 86.4 · Norths Bears 86).