Basketball · Australia NBL1 East · 11/07, 11:00
Prediction: Sutherland Sharks vs Illawarra Hawks NBL1
Prediction summary
Estimated points
181.6Total
Sutherland Sharks90.6
Illawarra Hawks NBL191
1X2
Even — no clear favourite
Sutherland Sharks
Illawarra Hawks NBL1
The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.
Recent form · 10 last
Sutherland Sharks
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Illawarra Hawks NBL1
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sutherland Sharks
5–1
Illawarra Hawks NBL1
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sutherland Sharks 1617 · Illawarra Hawks NBL1 1569
| Sutherland Sharks | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
181.6 points · Bet365 line 178.5 · +3.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points181.6Sutherland Sharks 90.6 · Illawarra Hawks NBL1 91
Match keys
- H2H favours Sutherland Sharks: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Sutherland Sharks | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 93.3 / 79.6 | 96 / 84 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 96 / 76 | 92.4 / 83.2 |
| Est. result | 91 | 91 |
Est. total181.6
Line O/U178.5
Diff.3.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sutherland Sharks 5–0–1 Illawarra Hawks NBL1
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Australia NBL1 East | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | 84-77 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 12/07/25 Australia NBL1 East | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | 112-120 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 25/04/25 Australia NBL1 East | Sutherland Sharks | 88-70 | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 |
| 13/07/24 Australia NBL1 East | Sutherland Sharks | 93-74 | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 |
| 25/04/24 Australia NBL1 East | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | 69-107 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 24/06/23 Australia NBL1 East | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | 80-92 | Sutherland Sharks |
Standings · Australia NBL1 East
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1663 | 1434 | 0 |
| 2 | Norths Bears | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1492 | 1310 | 0 |
| 3 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | 18 | 13 | 5 | 1506 | 1349 | 0 |
| 4 | BA Coe | 20 | 13 | 7 | 1669 | 1499 | 0 |
| 5 | Sutherland Sharks | 17 | 11 | 6 | 1507 | 1380 | 0 |
| 6 | Maitland Mustangs | 17 | 10 | 7 | 1480 | 1359 | 0 |
| 7 | Canberra Gunners | 18 | 10 | 8 | 1500 | 1451 | 0 |
| 8 | Central Coast Crusaders | 18 | 9 | 9 | 1537 | 1583 | 0 |
| 9 | Inner West Bulls | 18 | 8 | 10 | 1443 | 1520 | 0 |
| 10 | Sydney Comets | 17 | 7 | 10 | 1292 | 1305 | 0 |
| 11 | Bankstown Bruins | 17 | 7 | 10 | 1512 | 1586 | 0 |
| 12 | Hills Hornets | 17 | 7 | 10 | 1336 | 1431 | 0 |
| 13 | Newcastle Falcons | 17 | 7 | 10 | 1308 | 1373 | 0 |
| 14 | Hornsby Spiders | 17 | 6 | 11 | 1413 | 1517 | 0 |
| 15 | Penrith Panthers | 17 | 2 | 15 | 1250 | 1485 | 0 |
| 16 | Albury Wodonga Bandits | 18 | 2 | 16 | 1465 | 1791 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sutherland Sharks | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 |
|---|---|---|
| Inner West Bulls | 97-69 W | 97-76 W |
| Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | 88-63 W | 77-82 L |
| Canberra Gunners | 100-87 W | 102-93 W |
| Hills Hornets | 80-73 W | 98-105 L |
| Penrith Panthers | 102-80 W | 94-84 W |
| Sydney Comets | 87-62 W | 102-79 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sutherland Sharks (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sutherland Sharks
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Inner West Bulls Australia NBL1 East |
97-69 | W |
| 04/07 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Australia NBL1 East |
88-63 | W |
| 27/06 | Canberra Gunners Australia NBL1 East |
100-87 | W |
| 21/06 | Hills Hornets Australia NBL1 East |
80-73 | W |
| 20/06 | BA Coe Australia NBL1 East |
115-88 | W |
| 14/06 | Canberra Gunners Australia NBL1 East |
78-75 | W |
| 13/06 | Hornsby Spiders Australia NBL1 East |
87-95 | L |
| 31/05 | Penrith Panthers Australia NBL1 East |
102-80 | W |
| 30/05 | Sydney Comets Australia NBL1 East |
87-62 | W |
| 23/05 | Central Coast Crusaders Australia NBL1 East |
99-104 | L |
Illawarra Hawks NBL1
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Sydney Comets Australia NBL1 East |
102-79 | W |
| 04/07 | Albury Wodonga Bandits Australia NBL1 East |
93-73 | W |
| 27/06 | Hills Hornets Australia NBL1 East |
98-105 | L |
| 21/06 | Bankstown Bruins Australia NBL1 East |
92-77 | W |
| 20/06 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Australia NBL1 East |
77-82 | L |
| 13/06 | Canberra Gunners Australia NBL1 East |
102-93 | W |
| 30/05 | Albury Wodonga Bandits Australia NBL1 East |
111-102 | W |
| 23/05 | Newcastle Falcons Australia NBL1 East |
94-69 | W |
| 16/05 | Penrith Panthers Australia NBL1 East |
94-84 | W |
| 09/05 | Inner West Bulls Australia NBL1 East |
97-76 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sutherland Sharks vs Illawarra Hawks NBL1?
Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Sutherland Sharks 49% · Illawarra Hawks NBL1 51%).
How many points are expected in Sutherland Sharks vs Illawarra Hawks NBL1?
The model estimates 181.6 total points (Sutherland Sharks 90.6 · Illawarra Hawks NBL1 91).