Comeback probability

Comeback probability is the real chance that a match which has turned against the favourite, or that isn't producing the expected goals, ends up back on track. We compute it from the sport, the score and the time left: in football with a goals model (Poisson conditioned on the minute), in tennis with a Markov chain over sets and games, and in basketball and handball from the points difference and remaining time. It is a data point to analyse, never a guaranteed prediction or an odds figure.

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