Glossary · Poisson and Dixon-Coles
Poisson and Dixon-Coles
The Poisson model estimates the probability of each scoreline from each team's expected goals. The Dixon-Coles correction adjusts low scores (0-0, 1-0, 1-1), where plain Poisson is off.
Example
With 1.7 expected goals for the home side and 1.1 for the away side, Poisson spreads the probability of each result, giving 1X2, over/under and BTTS.
See also