Tennis · Challenger Brisbane · 13/11, 02:00
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs August Holmgren
Team pages: Bernard Tomic · August Holmgren
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
August Holmgren
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
5-5 (W-L)
August Holmgren
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1570 · August Holmgren 1503
| Bernard Tomic | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1570 vs 1503).
- Bernard Tomic dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 41.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-12.6 | 12.2-10.9 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| Double faults | 0.6 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 75.4% | 75.8% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 37.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Omar Jasika Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 09/11 | Blake Ellis Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 08/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Timofey Skatov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/10 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/09 | Fajing Sun ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Rigele Te ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
August Holmgren
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Christopher O'Connell Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/11 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 04/11 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/11 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Luca Nardi Challenger Olbia · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs August Holmgren?
Our model gives 50% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.