Tennis · Challenger Brisbane · 13/11, 02:00
Prediction: Sebastian Gorzny vs Alex Bolt
Team pages: Sebastian Gorzny · Alex Bolt
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Gorzny
Alex Bolt
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Gorzny
6-4 (W-L)
Alex Bolt
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Gorzny 1517 · Alex Bolt 1570
| Sebastian Gorzny | Alex Bolt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Bolt (rating 1517 vs 1570).
Statistics
| Sebastian Gorzny | Alex Bolt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-12 | 12.3-10.5 |
| Aces | 9.4 | 8.5 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 73.6% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 37.5% | 37.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Matthew Dellavedova Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/11 | Isaac Becroft Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 28/10 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Igor Marcondes Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 17/10 | Alastair Gray M25 Austin |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 15/10 | Quinn Vandecasteele M25 Austin |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Edward Winter M25 Austin |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Tristan Boyer Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 21/09 | Aidan Mayo Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Alex Bolt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 10/11 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Lloyd Harris ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Evan Zhu Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Akira Santillan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Omar Jasika ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Gorzny vs Alex Bolt?
Our model gives 55% to Alex Bolt, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.