Tennis · Challenger Brisbane · 12/11, 02:00
Prediction: Carl Emil Overbeck vs Juncheng Shang
Team pages: Carl Emil Overbeck · Juncheng Shang
Prediction summary
Winner
Carl Emil Overbeck
Juncheng Shang
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Carl Emil Overbeck
5-5 (W-L)
Juncheng Shang
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carl Emil Overbeck 1484 · Juncheng Shang 1469
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Juncheng Shang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Juncheng Shang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.1 | 1.1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-11.3 | 12.3-13.6 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 66% |
| Break % | 29.7% | 38.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carl Emil Overbeck
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Florian Broska Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 05/11 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/11 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/10 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Hugo Grenier Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Ryan Peniston Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Juncheng Shang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Jake Delaney Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Sebastian Baez ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Marco Trungelliti US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 25-20 | L |
| 14/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 04/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 02/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carl Emil Overbeck vs Juncheng Shang?
Our model gives 63% to Juncheng Shang, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.