Tennis · W75 Brisbane · 10/11, 02:00
Prediction: Sakura Hosogi vs Hayu Kinoshita
Team pages: Sakura Hosogi · Hayu Kinoshita
Prediction summary
Winner
Sakura Hosogi
Hayu Kinoshita
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Sakura Hosogi
1-9 (W-L)
Hayu Kinoshita
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sakura Hosogi
1–1
Hayu Kinoshita
(2 last)
- 15 Jul2-0 12-3W
- 18 Apr0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sakura Hosogi 1487 · Hayu Kinoshita 1415
| Sakura Hosogi | Hayu Kinoshita | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sakura Hosogi (rating 1487 vs 1415).
- Sakura Hosogi is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Sakura Hosogi | Hayu Kinoshita | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 13% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 0.5-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-12.7 | 9.4-12.3 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 55.7% | 58.2% |
| Break % | 38.3% | 40.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
H2H · Sakura Hosogi 1 – 1 Hayu Kinoshita (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sakura Hosogi 1–1 Hayu Kinoshita
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/26 W75 Granby | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/04/26 W35 Miyazaki | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sakura Hosogi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Han Shi W100 Incheon |
1-2 | 9-12 | L |
| 27/10 | Katherine Sebov W75 Toronto |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/10 | Reese Brantmeier W75 Saguenay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Hina Inoue W75 Saguenay |
2-1 | 15-18 | W |
| 27/09 | Hiromi Abe W50 Nanao |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Michika Ozeki W50 Nanao |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Hikaru Sato W50 Nanao |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Rinko Matsuda W50 Nanao |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 22/09 | Natsuki Yoshimoto W50 Nanao |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Ena Shibahara W35 Kyoto |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Hayu Kinoshita
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Tatiana Prozorova WTA Hong Kong · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Jia-Jing Lu WTA Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Darja Semenistaja WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Cadence Brace WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/09 | Victoria Rodriguez WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Oceane Dodin W50 Leiria |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Rebecca Munk Mortensen W50 Leiria |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Darja Semenistaja US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sakura Hosogi vs Hayu Kinoshita?
Our model gives 51% to Hayu Kinoshita, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.