Tennis · Challenger Knoxville · 10/11, 16:00
Prediction: Liam Draxl vs Duncan Chan
Team pages: Liam Draxl · Duncan Chan
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Draxl
Duncan Chan
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Draxl
6-4 (W-L)
Duncan Chan
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Draxl 1562 · Duncan Chan 1473
| Liam Draxl | Duncan Chan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liam Draxl (rating 1562 vs 1473).
- Liam Draxl dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 55.7% break avg.
- Liam Draxl is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Duncan Chan makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Liam Draxl | Duncan Chan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-12.9 | 11.7-13 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 2 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 67.4% |
| Break % | 55.7% | 57.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/11 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 31/10 | Sebastian Dominko Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 31/10 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 27/10 | Tomasz Berkieta Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Tomas Machac Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 15/10 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 12-14 | W |
| 14/10 | James Duckworth Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Duncan Chan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 26/10 | Benjamin Willwerth Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/10 | Gavin Young Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 18/10 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Colton Smith Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Keaton Hance Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/09 | Denis Petak Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 01/08 | Hugo Gaston ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Draxl vs Duncan Chan?
Our model gives 69% to Liam Draxl, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.