Tennis · Challenger Lima · 08/11, 19:00

Prediction: Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves vs Nicolas Jarry

Team pages: Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves · Nicolas Jarry

Prediction summary

Winner

52% 48%

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Nicolas Jarry

Estimated games

Recent form · 10 last

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 7-3 (W-L)

WLLWWWWWWL

Nicolas Jarry 5-5 (W-L)

LLLWWWWWLL

Head-to-head

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1–1 Nicolas Jarry (2 last)

11 Feb2-0 13-10W
15 Apr1-2 15-17L

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1531 · Nicolas Jarry 1495

	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	Nicolas Jarry
Our model	55%	45%
Market	50%	50%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Statistics

	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	Nicolas Jarry
Win %	60%	40%
Win % · Clay	60% (10)	57% (7)
Sets (G-P)	1.3-0.9	1-1.4
Games (G-P)	10.5-9.2	11.8-12.1
Aces	3.2	8.3
Double faults	1.4	2.2
1st serve %	68.5%	72.1%
Break %	32%	32.5%

Estimated total games (ours) 22

H2H · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1 – 1 Nicolas Jarry (2)

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	2
08:28 +3’	1.83	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1–1 Nicolas Jarry

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
11/02/23 ATP Buenos Aires	2-0	13-10	W
15/04/22 Challenger San Luis Potosi	1-2	15-17	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves

WWWLL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
04/11	Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay	0-2	5-12	L
24/10	Valerio Aboian Challenger Cali · Clay	1-2	14-16	L
23/10	Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Cali · Clay	2-1	16-13	W
22/10	Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Cali · Clay	2-0	12-6	W
20/10	Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Cali · Clay	2-0	12-6	W
19/10	Juan Sebastian Gomez Challenger Cali · Clay	2-0	12-3	W
18/10	Lorenzo Claverie Challenger Cali · Clay	2-0	12-6	W
15/10	Francisco Comesana Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay	0-2	5-12	L
09/10	Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Antofagasta · Clay	0-2	5-12	L
07/10	Nick Hardt Challenger Antofagasta · Clay	2-0	12-6	W

Nicolas Jarry

LWWLL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
27/10	Hugo Dellien Challenger Guayaquil · Clay	0-2	4-12	L
22/10	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Cali · Clay	0-2	10-13	L
20/10	Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Cali · Clay	2-1	18-13	W
14/04	Elmer Moller Challenger Oeiras · Clay	2-1	15-8	W
11/04	Jurij Rodionov Challenger Madrid · Clay	1-2	19-20	L
10/04	Nerman Fatic Challenger Madrid · Clay	2-0	12-5	W
09/04	Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Madrid · Clay	2-0	13-8	W
17/03	Mattia Bellucci ATP Miami · Hard	0-2	4-12	L
10/03	Adam Walton Challenger Cap Cana · Hard	0-2	7-13	L
02/03	Francesco Maestrelli ATP Indian Wells · Hard	1-2	16-17	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves vs Nicolas Jarry?

Our model gives 52% to Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.