Tennis · Challenger Hersonissos · 11/11, 09:00
Prediction: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Team pages: Carlo Alberto Caniato · Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Prediction summary
Winner
Carlo Alberto Caniato
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Carlo Alberto Caniato
7-3 (W-L)
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Carlo Alberto Caniato
1–0
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
(1 last)
- 02 Nov2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carlo Alberto Caniato 1544 · Gilles Arnaud Bailly 1535
| Carlo Alberto Caniato | Gilles Arnaud Bailly | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Carlo Alberto Caniato 1–0 Gilles Arnaud Bailly (1).
Statistics
| Carlo Alberto Caniato | Gilles Arnaud Bailly | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.6 | 10-11.1 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 76.5% | 58.3% |
| Break % | 45.2% | 46.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Carlo Alberto Caniato 1 – 0 Gilles Arnaud Bailly (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlo Alberto Caniato 1–0 Gilles Arnaud Bailly
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/25 M25 Sintra | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carlo Alberto Caniato
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Taranto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/11 | Philip Henning Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 03/11 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/10 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/10 | Diogo Morais Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/10 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Catania · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/10 | Daniel Siniakov Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Palermo · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Max Wiskandt Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Ioannis Xilas M25 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/11 | Miles Jones M25 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/11 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/11 | Dimitris Azoidis M25 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 28/10 | James Mackinlay M25 Malta |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/10 | Clement Chidekh ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Alex Barrena Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Timofey Skatov US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly?
Our model gives 64% to Carlo Alberto Caniato, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.