Tennis · Challenger Hersonissos · 12/11, 09:00
Prediction: Francesco Maestrelli vs Sumit Nagal
Team pages: Francesco Maestrelli · Sumit Nagal
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli
Sumit Nagal
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Maestrelli
7-3 (W-L)
Sumit Nagal
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Francesco Maestrelli
0–1
Sumit Nagal
(1 last)
- 25 Apr0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Maestrelli 1553 · Sumit Nagal 1555
| Francesco Maestrelli | Sumit Nagal | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 61.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Francesco Maestrelli 0–1 Sumit Nagal (1).
Statistics
| Francesco Maestrelli | Sumit Nagal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.8 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-8.8 | 11.4-10.2 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73.4% | 63.3% |
| Break % | 61.9% | 46.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
H2H · Francesco Maestrelli 0 – 1 Sumit Nagal (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Francesco Maestrelli 0–1 Sumit Nagal
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/23 Challenger Rome | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Maestrelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Johannus Monday Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/11 | Jack Loge Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/11 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Taranto · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/11 | Peter Makk Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/11 | Francesco Forti Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/10 | Moise Kouame Challenger Brest · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/10 | Moez Echargui Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/10 | Borna Gojo ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/10 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Sumit Nagal
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Michael Geerts Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/11 | Karim Bennani Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/11 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Taranto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/11 | Hugo Grenier Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/11 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Alexander Ritschard Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/10 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/10 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 07/10 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Maestrelli vs Sumit Nagal?
Our model gives 53% to Francesco Maestrelli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.