Tennis · Challenger Hersonissos · 11/11, 09:00
Prediction: Michael Geerts vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
Team pages: Michael Geerts · Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
Prediction summary
Winner
Michael Geerts
Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Michael Geerts
3-7 (W-L)
Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michael Geerts 1475 · Juan Cruz Martin Manzano 1555
| Michael Geerts | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Cruz Martin Manzano (rating 1475 vs 1555).
- Juan Cruz Martin Manzano is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Michael Geerts makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Michael Geerts | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (2) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.5-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.9 | 10.8-7.6 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 5 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.9% | 66.9% |
| Break % | 33.6% | 50.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michael Geerts
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Brest · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/10 | Niels McDonald Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 25/10 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 13/10 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Catania · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Joao Domingues Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 27/09 | Vladyslav Orlov Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Bari · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Matthew William Donald Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/10 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/09 | Jay Clarke Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/09 | Matteo Sciahbasi Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Alex Barrena Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/09 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michael Geerts vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano?
Our model gives 52% to Michael Geerts, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.