Tennis · Challenger Villa Maria · 05/11, 14:00
Prediction: Federico Coria vs Valerio Aboian
Team pages: Federico Coria · Valerio Aboian
Prediction summary
Winner
Federico Coria
Valerio Aboian
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Federico Coria
2-8 (W-L)
Valerio Aboian
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Coria 1427 · Valerio Aboian 1563
| Federico Coria | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerio Aboian (rating 1427 vs 1563).
- Valerio Aboian is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Federico Coria | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 22% (9) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.7 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.8-12 | 13.1-11.6 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 65% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 50.8% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Coria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Ivan Dreycopp Challenger Villa Maria · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/10 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/10 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Lucio Ratti Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 25/08 | Clement Chidekh US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Taro Daniel ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
Valerio Aboian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Alan Magadan Challenger Villa Maria · Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 31/10 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/10 | Nick Hardt Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 29/10 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 27/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/10 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 23/10 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 22/10 | Matias Soto Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/10 | Facundo Mena Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Coria vs Valerio Aboian?
Our model gives 60% to Valerio Aboian, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.