Tennis · Challenger Charlottesville · 04/11, 19:00
Prediction: Braden Shick vs Darwin Blanch
Team pages: Braden Shick · Darwin Blanch
Prediction summary
Winner
Braden Shick
Darwin Blanch
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Braden Shick
4-6 (W-L)
Darwin Blanch
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Braden Shick 1446 · Darwin Blanch 1576
| Braden Shick | Darwin Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Blanch (rating 1446 vs 1576).
- Darwin Blanch dominates on serve: 8 aces and 46.4% break avg.
- Darwin Blanch is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Braden Shick | Darwin Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.2-12.4 | 11.3-9.7 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 63.8% | 77.6% |
| Break % | 32% | 46.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Braden Shick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Gabriel Debru Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Ozan Baris Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 21/09 | Patrick Maloney Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 15/09 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Clement Tabur US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Darwin Blanch
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/10 | Liam Draxl Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 30/10 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 28/10 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/10 | Jenson Brooksby Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Sander Jong Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/10 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/10 | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/10 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Braden Shick vs Darwin Blanch?
Our model gives 70% to Darwin Blanch, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.