Tennis · Challenger Charlottesville · 04/11, 17:30
Prediction: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov
Team pages: Murphy Cassone · Stefan Kozlov
Prediction summary
Winner
Murphy Cassone
Stefan Kozlov
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Murphy Cassone
7-3 (W-L)
Stefan Kozlov
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Murphy Cassone
0–1
Stefan Kozlov
(1 last)
- 16 Nov0-2 11-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Murphy Cassone 1579 · Stefan Kozlov 1463
| Murphy Cassone | Stefan Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Murphy Cassone (rating 1579 vs 1463).
- Murphy Cassone is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Murphy Cassone 0–1 Stefan Kozlov (1).
Statistics
| Murphy Cassone | Stefan Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-10.7 | 11.2-11.9 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 76.5% | 61.7% |
| Break % | 55.8% | 51% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
H2H · Murphy Cassone 0 – 1 Stefan Kozlov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Murphy Cassone 0–1 Stefan Kozlov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/25 Challenger Champaign | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Murphy Cassone
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 20/10 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Daniel Masur Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 24/09 | Billy Harris Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Clement Tabur Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 21/09 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/09 | Hugo Car Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/09 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Stefan Kozlov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Andres Martin Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Columbus · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 29/09 | James Trotter Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Colton Smith Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 14/08 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 12/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Zachary Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov?
Our model gives 63% to Murphy Cassone, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.