Tennis · Challenger Taranto · 05/11, 10:00
Prediction: Jay Clarke vs Gianluca Cadenasso
Team pages: Jay Clarke · Gianluca Cadenasso
Prediction summary
Winner
Jay Clarke
Gianluca Cadenasso
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Jay Clarke
5-5 (W-L)
Gianluca Cadenasso
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jay Clarke
1–0
Gianluca Cadenasso
(1 last)
- 08 Feb2-1 15-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jay Clarke 1527 · Gianluca Cadenasso 1589
| Jay Clarke | Gianluca Cadenasso | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gianluca Cadenasso (rating 1527 vs 1589).
- Head-to-head: Jay Clarke 1–0 Gianluca Cadenasso (1).
Statistics
| Jay Clarke | Gianluca Cadenasso | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-9.4 | 13.9-11.6 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 63.9% | 72% |
| Break % | 37% | 49.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
H2H · Jay Clarke 1 – 0 Gianluca Cadenasso (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jay Clarke 1–0 Gianluca Cadenasso
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/24 ITF M25 Hammamet | 2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jay Clarke
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/10 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Florence · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/10 | Gabriele Piraino Challenger Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Bari · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Fabrizio Andaloro Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/09 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/09 | John Sperle Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/09 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Biella · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 18/09 | Felix Gill Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/09 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Gianluca Cadenasso
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Florent Bax Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Sandro Kopp Challenger Florence · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/10 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 17/10 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/10 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/10 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 07/10 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Filippo Moroni Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/09 | Lorenzo Angelini Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jay Clarke vs Gianluca Cadenasso?
Our model gives 54% to Gianluca Cadenasso, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.