Tennis · W50 Heraklion · 04/11, 11:00
Prediction: Ariana Geerlings vs Matilde Paoletti
Team pages: Ariana Geerlings · Matilde Paoletti
Prediction summary
Winner
Ariana Geerlings
Matilde Paoletti
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Ariana Geerlings
8-2 (W-L)
Matilde Paoletti
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ariana Geerlings 1583 · Matilde Paoletti 1527
| Ariana Geerlings | Matilde Paoletti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ariana Geerlings (rating 1583 vs 1527).
Statistics
| Ariana Geerlings | Matilde Paoletti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.1 | 12.3-9.8 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 62.9% | 56.9% |
| Break % | 55.8% | 52.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ariana Geerlings
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Laura Samsonova WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/10 | Francesca Curmi WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/10 | Julia Grabher WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/10 | Lucia Cortez Llorca WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Tea Kovacevic WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/10 | Aurora Zantedeschi W35 Seville |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 06/10 | Laura Boehner W35 Seville |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/09 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo WTA Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Lucia Cortez Llorca W35 Reus · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 12/09 | Francesca Pace W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Matilde Paoletti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Styliani Roussopoulou W50 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/10 | Alessandra Mazzola W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 21/10 | Ginevra Montebruno W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/10 | Jessica Pieri W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 15/10 | Chiara Fornasieri W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/10 | Alessandra Mazzola W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/10 | Eva Bennemann W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/10 | Francesca Gandolfi W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Alisa Oktiabreva W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Daria Yesypchuk W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ariana Geerlings vs Matilde Paoletti?
Our model gives 64% to Ariana Geerlings, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.