Tennis · W100 Incheon · 04/11, 03:00
Prediction: Xinyu Gao vs Natsumi Kawaguchi
Team pages: Xinyu Gao · Natsumi Kawaguchi
Prediction summary
Winner
Xinyu Gao
Natsumi Kawaguchi
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Xinyu Gao
2-8 (W-L)
Natsumi Kawaguchi
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Xinyu Gao 1482 · Natsumi Kawaguchi 1479
| Xinyu Gao | Natsumi Kawaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Xinyu Gao | Natsumi Kawaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.4-11.1 | 10.7-11.2 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 53.7% | 62.1% |
| Break % | 60.8% | 49% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Xinyu Gao
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Thea Frodin W100 New Braunfels |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 21/10 | Anastasia Tikhonova W50 Austin |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Whitney Osuigwe W50 Austin |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 13/10 | Akasha Urhobo W100 Edmond |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Iga Swiatek WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Panna Udvardy WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/09 | Francisca Jorge WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Sofia Johnson W50 Evora |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Elena Micic W50 Evora |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Barbora Palicova W75 Bytom |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Natsumi Kawaguchi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Ena Shibahara W100 Incheon |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 26/09 | Meiqi Guo WTA Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Sayaka Ishii W50 Nanao |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 22/09 | Kayo Nishimura W50 Nanao |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Rinko Matsuda W35 Kyoto |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Haruna Arakawa W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/09 | Kayo Nishimura W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/09 | Yujia Huang W50 Guiyang |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Funa Kozaki W75 Tianjin |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Priska Madelyn Nugroho W15 Tianjin |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Xinyu Gao vs Natsumi Kawaguchi?
Our model gives 65% to Xinyu Gao, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.