Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 04/11, 05:00
Prediction: Kenta Kawada vs Julian Messina
Team pages: Kenta Kawada · Julian Messina
Prediction summary
Winner
Kenta Kawada
Julian Messina
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Kenta Kawada
3-7 (W-L)
Julian Messina
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kenta Kawada 1515 · Julian Messina 1410
| Kenta Kawada | Julian Messina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kenta Kawada (rating 1515 vs 1410).
- Kenta Kawada is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Kenta Kawada makes many double faults (4.6/match).
- Note: Julian Messina makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Kenta Kawada | Julian Messina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 0.5-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-11.6 | 7.9-11.4 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 58.6% | 62.8% |
| Break % | 51.5% | 41.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kenta Kawada
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Seiya Nakanishi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/11 | Yakumo Motokura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 27/10 | Natsuki Yamamoto M15 Yanagawa City |
1-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 04/10 | Kirill Kistanov UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 03/10 | Shotaro Yamamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Abdumalik Kamalov UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 01/10 | Seiya Nakanishi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 30/09 | Natsuki Yamamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Mirgiiaz Mirdzhaliev UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 27/09 | Abdumalik Kamalov UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Julian Messina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Yakumo Motokura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/11 | Seiya Nakanishi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Leonard Tramolay UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 21/10 | Joseph Patton UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Stijn Paardekooper UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Ludovico Vaccari UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Tsz-Him Chan UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Marc Van Der Merwe UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Tommy Czaplinski UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Ritesh Patil UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kenta Kawada vs Julian Messina?
Our model gives 71% to Kenta Kawada, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.