Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 08/11, 03:30
Prediction: Haru Kawanaka vs Julian Messina
Team pages: Haru Kawanaka · Julian Messina
Prediction summary
Winner
Haru Kawanaka
Julian Messina
Estimated games
19.9
Recent form · 10 last
Haru Kawanaka
4-6 (W-L)
Julian Messina
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Haru Kawanaka 1429 · Julian Messina 1385
| Haru Kawanaka | Julian Messina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Haru Kawanaka (rating 1429 vs 1385).
- Note: Julian Messina makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Haru Kawanaka | Julian Messina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 10% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 0.3-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 8-11.4 | 7.5-11.9 |
| Aces | 1 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 56.6% | 60.2% |
| Break % | 69.4% | 36.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Haru Kawanaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Eita Suzuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Yakumo Motokura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/11 | Taiyo Uenoyama UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/11 | Tokitaka Ito UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/11 | Ke Hau Hung UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/10 | Ryusei Hashimoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Aruth Chinsupakul UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 13/10 | Hien Q H Pham UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/10 | Taiyo Hirano UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Christopher Kosei Ono UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Julian Messina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Taiyo Hirano UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Ewan Ogura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Kenta Kawada UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/11 | Yakumo Motokura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/11 | Seiya Nakanishi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Leonard Tramolay UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 21/10 | Joseph Patton UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Stijn Paardekooper UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Ludovico Vaccari UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Tsz-Him Chan UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Haru Kawanaka vs Julian Messina?
Our model gives 53% to Haru Kawanaka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.