Tennis · Challenger Charlottesville · 03/11, 17:30
Prediction: Aidan Mayo vs Petr Nesterov
Team pages: Aidan Mayo · Petr Nesterov
Prediction summary
Winner
Aidan Mayo
Petr Nesterov
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Aidan Mayo
6-4 (W-L)
Petr Nesterov
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aidan Mayo 1602 · Petr Nesterov 1515
| Aidan Mayo | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mayo (rating 1602 vs 1515).
- Aidan Mayo dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 41% break avg.
- Note: Aidan Mayo makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Aidan Mayo | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-10.7 | 13-12.1 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 76.8% | 71% |
| Break % | 41% | 46.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aidan Mayo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/11 | Duncan Chan Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 31/10 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/10 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/10 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 27/10 | Hynek Barton Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/10 | Sander Jong Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 18-14 | L |
| 22/10 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/10 | Colton Smith Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 02/10 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Petr Nesterov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Christian Langmo Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Carles Hernandez Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/10 | Hynek Barton Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 04/10 | Charles Chen Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 29/09 | Goncalo Marques Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 28/09 | Marko Topo Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/09 | Giorgio Tabacco Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 22/09 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aidan Mayo vs Petr Nesterov?
Our model gives 66% to Aidan Mayo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.