Tennis · M25 Harlingen · 04/11, 16:00
Prediction: Quinn Vandecasteele vs Bryce Nakashima
Team pages: Quinn Vandecasteele · Bryce Nakashima
Prediction summary
Winner
Quinn Vandecasteele
Bryce Nakashima
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Quinn Vandecasteele
4-6 (W-L)
Bryce Nakashima
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Quinn Vandecasteele
1–1
Bryce Nakashima
(2 last)
- 14 Sept0-2 6-12L
- 14 Nov2-1 17-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Quinn Vandecasteele 1445 · Bryce Nakashima 1544
| Quinn Vandecasteele | Bryce Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bryce Nakashima (rating 1445 vs 1544).
- Bryce Nakashima dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 42.3% break avg.
- Bryce Nakashima is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Quinn Vandecasteele | Bryce Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-12 | 12.8-10.7 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 73% |
| Break % | 38.4% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Quinn Vandecasteele 1 – 1 Bryce Nakashima (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Quinn Vandecasteele 1–1 Bryce Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/26 Challenger Tiburon | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/11/23 ITF M25 Columbus | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Quinn Vandecasteele
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Michael Antonius Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 15/10 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Austin |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Aryan Shah M25 Austin |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Preston Stearns Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 20/09 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 14/09 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Noah Zamora Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Bryce Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Jenson Brooksby Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Keegan Smith Challenger Columbus · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 30/09 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Timo Legout Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 14/09 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Jakub Vrba M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/08 | Preston Stearns M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Quinn Vandecasteele vs Bryce Nakashima?
Our model gives 59% to Bryce Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.