Tennis · W15 Maanshan · 03/11, 06:00
Prediction: Yuyao Li vs Alina Tikhonova
Team pages: Yuyao Li · Alina Tikhonova
Prediction summary
Winner
Yuyao Li
Alina Tikhonova
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Yuyao Li
5-5 (W-L)
Alina Tikhonova
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yuyao Li 1469 · Alina Tikhonova 1622
| Yuyao Li | Alina Tikhonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 11% | 89% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alina Tikhonova (rating 1469 vs 1622).
- Alina Tikhonova is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Yuyao Li makes many double faults (5.5/match).
- Note: Alina Tikhonova makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Yuyao Li | Alina Tikhonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 100% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.9-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-12.2 | 13.8-9.5 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 56.1% | 57.9% |
| Break % | 52.4% | 55.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yuyao Li
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Hong Yi Cody Wong W15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Sunam Jeong W15 Tianjin |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 02/07 | Chenting Zhu W15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Wenfei Yu W15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Varvara Panshina W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 16/06 | Wenfei Yu W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 12/05 | Xiran Lan W15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-9 | L |
| 08/05 | Xi Luo W15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Niehua Tian W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 05/05 | Shiyu Ye W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Alina Tikhonova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Meng Yi Chen W35 Kunshan |
1-2 | 7-10 | L |
| 19/07 | JiaYi Wang W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Naho Sato W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/07 | Seo Yun Choi W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 16/07 | Salakthip Ounmuang W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 15/07 | Chengyiyi Yuan W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/07 | Cheuk Ying Shek W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/07 | Maria Kalyakina W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 10/07 | Shihomi Li Xuan Leong W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 09/07 | Junhan Zhang W15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yuyao Li vs Alina Tikhonova?
Our model gives 81% to Alina Tikhonova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.