Tennis · M15 Trois-Rivieres · 03/11, 15:30
Prediction: Marko Mesarovic vs Mikael Arseneault
Team pages: Marko Mesarovic · Mikael Arseneault
Prediction summary
Winner
Marko Mesarovic
Mikael Arseneault
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Marko Mesarovic
6-4 (W-L)
Mikael Arseneault
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marko Mesarovic 1538 · Mikael Arseneault 1464
| Marko Mesarovic | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marko Mesarovic (rating 1538 vs 1464).
- Marko Mesarovic is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Marko Mesarovic | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-9.7 | 11.7-12.7 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 63.3% |
| Break % | 45.2% | 35% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marko Mesarovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Tyler Zink M25 Norman |
1-2 | 7-15 | L |
| 28/10 | Vit Kalina M25 Norman |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/10 | Niccolo Baroni M25 Norman |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/10 | Christopher Thies M15 Lexington |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/10 | Alejandro Moreno M15 Lexington |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/10 | Oliver Bonding M15 Ann Arbor |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Dakotah Bobo M15 Ann Arbor |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Danil Panarin M15 Ann Arbor |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/08 | Preston Stearns M15 Champaign |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Zachary Viiala M15 Champaign |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Mikael Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Rodrigo Fernandes M15 Ithaca |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 20/10 | Matt Kuhar M15 Ithaca |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/10 | William Jansen M15 Lexington |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Matisse Farzam M15 Champaign |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 28/07 | James Trotter Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 21/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Edward Winter Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 19/07 | Pavle Marinkov Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 10/07 | Timo Legout M25 Laval |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marko Mesarovic vs Mikael Arseneault?
Our model gives 53% to Marko Mesarovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.