Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 04/11, 02:00
Prediction: Tomoki Fujiwara vs Ewan Ogura
Team pages: Tomoki Fujiwara · Ewan Ogura
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomoki Fujiwara
Ewan Ogura
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Tomoki Fujiwara
6-4 (W-L)
Ewan Ogura
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomoki Fujiwara 1555 · Ewan Ogura 1474
| Tomoki Fujiwara | Ewan Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tomoki Fujiwara (rating 1555 vs 1474).
- Tomoki Fujiwara is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Tomoki Fujiwara | Ewan Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-10.2 | 9.4-11.1 |
| Aces | 0 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 55.5% | 59.8% |
| Break % | 34.5% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomoki Fujiwara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Eita Suzuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/11 | Yuga Tashiro UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 03/10 | Lachlan King UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Yakumo Motokura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 01/10 | Raffael Gasanov UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/10 | Kanata Ozaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Sota Kambara UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/05 | Kazuki Nishiwaki UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Kabir Chhabria UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/05 | Masato Tanaka UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Ewan Ogura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Yuga Tashiro UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/11 | Eita Suzuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 22/02 | Kazuma Kawachi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/02 | Taketo Takamisawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 20/02 | Kairi Inoue UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 18/02 | Taki Adachi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 17/02 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/02 | Yamato Yukawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/01 | Ryusuke Horiuchi UTR Pro Yokohama · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/01 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Yokohama · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomoki Fujiwara vs Ewan Ogura?
Our model gives 55% to Tomoki Fujiwara, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.