Tennis · W50 Heraklion · 03/11, 09:00
Prediction: Lucia Cortez Llorca vs Sofia Shapatava
Team pages: Lucia Cortez Llorca · Sofia Shapatava
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucia Cortez Llorca
Sofia Shapatava
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Lucia Cortez Llorca
6-4 (W-L)
Sofia Shapatava
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lucia Cortez Llorca
1–0
Sofia Shapatava
(1 last)
- 01 Oct2-1 15-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucia Cortez Llorca 1509 · Sofia Shapatava 1464
| Lucia Cortez Llorca | Sofia Shapatava | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucia Cortez Llorca (rating 1509 vs 1464).
- Head-to-head: Lucia Cortez Llorca 1–0 Sofia Shapatava (1).
- Note: Lucia Cortez Llorca makes many double faults (6.5/match).
Statistics
| Lucia Cortez Llorca | Sofia Shapatava | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-9.3 | 9.1-10.9 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 6.5 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 57.8% | 56.1% |
| Break % | 62% | 46.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
H2H · Lucia Cortez Llorca 1 – 0 Sofia Shapatava (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucia Cortez Llorca 1–0 Sofia Shapatava
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/24 W35 Baza | 2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucia Cortez Llorca
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Jennifer Ruggeri W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/10 | Carlota Martinez Cirez W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/10 | Tena Lukas W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/10 | Ariana Geerlings WTA Mallorca · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Ekaterine Gorgodze WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/10 | Caijsa Wilda Hennemann W35 Seville |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Angelica Sara W35 Seville |
2-0 | 11-2 | W |
| 06/10 | Meritxell Teixido Garcia W35 Seville |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/09 | Kira Pavlova W50 Yecla |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Alicia Herrero Linana WTA Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Sofia Shapatava
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Alessandra Mazzola W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-11 | L |
| 23/09 | Alisa Oktiabreva W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Laura Boehner W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Angelica Raggi W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Chiara Fornasieri W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 09/09 | Alja Senica W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 04/09 | Francesca Gandolfi W15 Fiano Romano |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Daniela Vismane W15 Fiano Romano |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Cecilia Manitto W15 Fiano Romano |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Laura Mair W35 Trieste |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucia Cortez Llorca vs Sofia Shapatava?
Our model gives 71% to Lucia Cortez Llorca, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.