Tennis · Challenger Charlottesville · 02/11, 17:00
Prediction: Samuel Heredia vs Justin Boulais
Team pages: Samuel Heredia · Justin Boulais
Prediction summary
Winner
Samuel Heredia
Justin Boulais
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Samuel Heredia
1-9 (W-L)
Justin Boulais
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Samuel Heredia 1418 · Justin Boulais 1469
| Samuel Heredia | Justin Boulais | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Justin Boulais (rating 1418 vs 1469).
- Note: Samuel Heredia makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Samuel Heredia | Justin Boulais | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.8 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-13.3 | 12.1-11.6 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 63.1% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 32% | 41.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Samuel Heredia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Matias Soto Challenger Cali · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 11/10 | Federico Zeballos Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/10 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 27/09 | Leonardo Storck Franca Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 19/09 | Jesper De Jong Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Laslo Djere Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Luca Potenza M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Justin Boulais
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/10 | Sebastian Dominko Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 27/09 | Alexandre Reco Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Harold Mayot Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 21/09 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Mickael Kaouk Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 14/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Theo Arribage Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Cassis · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 06/09 | Matis Roche Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Samuel Heredia vs Justin Boulais?
Our model gives 66% to Justin Boulais, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.