Tennis · Challenger Villa Maria · 02/11, 14:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Gagliardo vs Ian Vertberger
Team pages: Lorenzo Gagliardo · Ian Vertberger
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Gagliardo
Ian Vertberger
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Gagliardo
6-4 (W-L)
Ian Vertberger
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Gagliardo 1554 · Ian Vertberger 1477
| Lorenzo Gagliardo | Ian Vertberger | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Gagliardo (rating 1554 vs 1477).
- Lorenzo Gagliardo is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Gagliardo | Ian Vertberger | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (5) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-7.4 | 10.3-12.5 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 0.3 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 58.4% |
| Break % | 37% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Gagliardo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Tadeo Meneo Challenger Villa Maria · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/10 | Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity M15 Joao Pessoa |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Pedro Sakamoto M15 Maceio |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/10 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M15 Maceio |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/10 | Ignacio Monzon M15 Maceio |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/10 | Bruno Rodrigues M15 Maceio |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 11/10 | Alejo Lorenzo Lingua Lavallen UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Rocco Valente UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/10 | Lautaro Rocha UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/10 | Dante Ezequiel Lopez UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
Ian Vertberger
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 14/10 | Francisco Fontes Damorim M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/10 | Glauco Pinheiro Da Cruz Junior M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Bastian Malla M15 Trelew |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 31/08 | Santiago Pesino M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Luis Jose Nakamine M15 Villa Constitucion |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 06/07 | Tomas Tischner M15 San Salvador de Jujuy |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Santiago Pesino M15 Punta Del Este · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 02/03 | Bastian Malla M25 Yerba Buena |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/11 | Leonardo Suarez ITF M15 La Paz · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Gagliardo vs Ian Vertberger?
Our model gives 76% to Lorenzo Gagliardo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.