Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 02/11, 05:00
Prediction: Seiya Nakanishi vs Julian Messina
Team pages: Seiya Nakanishi · Julian Messina
Prediction summary
Winner
Seiya Nakanishi
Julian Messina
Estimated games
20
Recent form · 10 last
Seiya Nakanishi
4-6 (W-L)
Julian Messina
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Seiya Nakanishi 1469 · Julian Messina 1382
| Seiya Nakanishi | Julian Messina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Seiya Nakanishi (rating 1469 vs 1382).
- Seiya Nakanishi is in better form: 40% recent wins.
- Note: Julian Messina makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Seiya Nakanishi | Julian Messina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 10% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 0.3-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-11.3 | 6.6-11.8 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 59.5% |
| Break % | 42% | 36.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Seiya Nakanishi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Kosuke Shibano M15 Yanagawa City |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/10 | Chikaya Sato M15 Yanagawa City |
2-1 | 8-10 | W |
| 03/10 | Yakumo Motokura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Lachlan King UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Kenta Kawada UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Natsuki Yamamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Stefan Menichella UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/09 | Kuan-Yi Lee M25 Sapporo |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Kazushi Idogaki M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/09 | Makoto Ochi M25 Sapporo |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Julian Messina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Leonard Tramolay UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 21/10 | Joseph Patton UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Stijn Paardekooper UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Ludovico Vaccari UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Tsz-Him Chan UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Marc Van Der Merwe UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Tommy Czaplinski UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Ritesh Patil UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Marshall Landry UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Brayden Tallakson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Seiya Nakanishi vs Julian Messina?
Our model gives 68% to Seiya Nakanishi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.