Tennis · Challenger Charlottesville · 02/11, 16:00
Prediction: Liam Draxl vs Maks Kasnikowski
Team pages: Liam Draxl · Maks Kasnikowski
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Draxl
Maks Kasnikowski
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Draxl
7-3 (W-L)
Maks Kasnikowski
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Liam Draxl
0–1
Maks Kasnikowski
(1 last)
- 14 Nov0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Draxl 1603 · Maks Kasnikowski 1531
| Liam Draxl | Maks Kasnikowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liam Draxl (rating 1603 vs 1531).
- Liam Draxl dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 47.3% break avg.
- Liam Draxl is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Liam Draxl 0–1 Maks Kasnikowski (1).
Statistics
| Liam Draxl | Maks Kasnikowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.9 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-12.3 | 10.3-9.7 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 76.6% |
| Break % | 47.3% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Liam Draxl 0 – 1 Maks Kasnikowski (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liam Draxl 0–1 Maks Kasnikowski
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/25 Challenger Drummondville | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Draxl
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Sebastian Dominko Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 31/10 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 27/10 | Tomasz Berkieta Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Tomas Machac Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 15/10 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 12-14 | W |
| 14/10 | James Duckworth Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/10 | Yutong Du Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Maks Kasnikowski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 27/10 | James Trotter Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/10 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/10 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/10 | Philip Henning Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Alex De Minaur Davis Cup |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Jay Friend Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 14-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Draxl vs Maks Kasnikowski?
Our model gives 55% to Liam Draxl, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.