Tennis · Challenger Charlottesville · 02/11, 16:00
Prediction: Alastair Gray vs Valentin Royer
Team pages: Alastair Gray · Valentin Royer
Prediction summary
Winner
Alastair Gray
Valentin Royer
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Alastair Gray
6-4 (W-L)
Valentin Royer
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alastair Gray
0–1
Valentin Royer
(1 last)
- 03 Jan1-2 11-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alastair Gray 1566 · Valentin Royer 1466
| Alastair Gray | Valentin Royer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alastair Gray (rating 1566 vs 1466).
- Alastair Gray is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alastair Gray 0–1 Valentin Royer (1).
Statistics
| Alastair Gray | Valentin Royer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-12.2 | 11.8-13.7 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 37.3% | 27.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
H2H · Alastair Gray 0 – 1 Valentin Royer (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alastair Gray 0–1 Valentin Royer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/24 Challenger Oeiras | 1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alastair Gray
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Lui Maxted M25 Norman |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/10 | Luca Pow M25 Norman |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/10 | Theo Papamalamis M25 Norman |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 28/10 | Emanuel Ivanisevic M25 Norman |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 18/10 | Cosme Rolland De Ravel M25 Austin |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 18/10 | Dominick Mosejczuk M25 Austin |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/10 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Austin |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 15/10 | Li Tu M25 Austin |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/10 | Spencer Johnson M25 Austin |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 14/09 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Valentin Royer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Sebastian Dominko Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 27/10 | Timo Legout Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/10 | Clement Tabur ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 14/10 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/10 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 26/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Adam Walton ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-28 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alastair Gray vs Valentin Royer?
Our model gives 53% to Valentin Royer, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.