Tennis · Challenger Charlottesville · 02/11, 16:00
Prediction: Nicolas Mejia vs Murphy Cassone
Team pages: Nicolas Mejia · Murphy Cassone
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Mejia
Murphy Cassone
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Mejia
5-5 (W-L)
Murphy Cassone
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nicolas Mejia
1–1
Murphy Cassone
(2 last)
- 06 Nov1-2 13-17L
- 14 Jul2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Mejia 1466 · Murphy Cassone 1586
| Nicolas Mejia | Murphy Cassone | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Murphy Cassone (rating 1466 vs 1586).
- Murphy Cassone is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Nicolas Mejia | Murphy Cassone | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-12.7 | 13.4-10.4 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 56.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
H2H · Nicolas Mejia 1 – 1 Murphy Cassone (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nicolas Mejia 1–1 Murphy Cassone
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/25 Challenger Knoxville | 1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 14/07/25 ATP Los Cabos | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Cali · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 21/10 | Federico Coria Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Michael Zheng ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/09 | Tallon Griekspoor Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Liam Draxl US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Adam Walton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Murphy Cassone
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Daniel Masur Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 24/09 | Billy Harris Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Clement Tabur Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 21/09 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/09 | Hugo Car Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/09 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Mejia vs Murphy Cassone?
Our model gives 64% to Murphy Cassone, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.