Tennis · Challenger Charlottesville · 01/11, 23:30
Prediction: Aidan Mayo vs Duncan Chan
Team pages: Aidan Mayo · Duncan Chan
Prediction summary
Winner
Aidan Mayo
Duncan Chan
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Aidan Mayo
6-4 (W-L)
Duncan Chan
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aidan Mayo 1580 · Duncan Chan 1477
| Aidan Mayo | Duncan Chan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mayo (rating 1580 vs 1477).
- Aidan Mayo is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Aidan Mayo makes many double faults (4.7/match).
- Note: Duncan Chan makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Aidan Mayo | Duncan Chan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-10.9 | 11.4-13 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 78.2% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 38.2% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aidan Mayo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/10 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/10 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 27/10 | Hynek Barton Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/10 | Sander Jong Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 18-14 | L |
| 22/10 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/10 | Colton Smith Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 02/10 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 01/10 | Colton Smith Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Nikita Filin Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Duncan Chan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Benjamin Willwerth Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/10 | Gavin Young Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 18/10 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Colton Smith Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Keaton Hance Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/09 | Denis Petak Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 01/08 | Hugo Gaston ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 29/07 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aidan Mayo vs Duncan Chan?
Our model gives 68% to Aidan Mayo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.