Tennis · Challenger Villa Maria · 03/11, 14:00
Prediction: Alan Magadan vs Valerio Aboian
Team pages: Alan Magadan · Valerio Aboian
Prediction summary
Winner
Alan Magadan
Valerio Aboian
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Alan Magadan
4-6 (W-L)
Valerio Aboian
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alan Magadan 1516 · Valerio Aboian 1569
| Alan Magadan | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerio Aboian (rating 1516 vs 1569).
Statistics
| Alan Magadan | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.2 | 12.5-12.5 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 68.9% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 44.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alan Magadan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 27/10 | Tristan McCormick Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/10 | Mario Andre Galarraga Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/10 | Daniel Salazar Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Juan Miguel Bolivar Idarraga Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Nicolas Bruna Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 21/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 20/08 | Alex Hernandez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 19/08 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Valerio Aboian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/10 | Nick Hardt Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 29/10 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 27/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/10 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 23/10 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 22/10 | Matias Soto Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/10 | Facundo Mena Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alan Magadan vs Valerio Aboian?
Our model gives 61% to Valerio Aboian, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.