Tennis · Challenger Villa Maria · 03/11, 14:00
Prediction: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gonzalo Villanueva
Team pages: Carlos Maria Zarate · Gonzalo Villanueva
Prediction summary
Winner
Carlos Maria Zarate
Gonzalo Villanueva
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Carlos Maria Zarate
4-6 (W-L)
Gonzalo Villanueva
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Carlos Maria Zarate
1–0
Gonzalo Villanueva
(1 last)
- 14 Oct2-1 17-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carlos Maria Zarate 1515 · Gonzalo Villanueva 1452
| Carlos Maria Zarate | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Maria Zarate (rating 1515 vs 1452).
- Head-to-head: Carlos Maria Zarate 1–0 Gonzalo Villanueva (1).
- Note: Gonzalo Villanueva makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Carlos Maria Zarate | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-11.1 | 12-13.2 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.7% | 64.9% |
| Break % | 38.6% | 43.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Carlos Maria Zarate 1 – 0 Gonzalo Villanueva (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlos Maria Zarate 1–0 Gonzalo Villanueva
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/26 Challenger Santa Cruz | 2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carlos Maria Zarate
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 29/10 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 28/10 | Alan Magadan Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 23/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cali · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/10 | Franco Ribero Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/09 | Lorenzo Gagliardo M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Gonzalo Villanueva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Cali · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/10 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 05/10 | Nick Hardt Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 02/10 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Mateus Alves Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/09 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 22/09 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 29/08 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Mar Del Plata |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 28/08 | Santiago De La Fuente M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gonzalo Villanueva?
Our model gives 56% to Carlos Maria Zarate, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.