Tennis · W100 Incheon · 01/11, 03:00
Prediction: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Ena Shibahara
Team pages: Natsumi Kawaguchi · Ena Shibahara
Prediction summary
Winner
Natsumi Kawaguchi
Ena Shibahara
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Natsumi Kawaguchi
4-6 (W-L)
Ena Shibahara
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Natsumi Kawaguchi 1447 · Ena Shibahara 1547
| Natsumi Kawaguchi | Ena Shibahara | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ena Shibahara (rating 1447 vs 1547).
- Ena Shibahara is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Natsumi Kawaguchi | Ena Shibahara | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-10.7 | 12.8-8.8 |
| Aces | 3 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 60.4% | 73.5% |
| Break % | 55.9% | 49.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Natsumi Kawaguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Meiqi Guo WTA Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Sayaka Ishii W50 Nanao |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 22/09 | Kayo Nishimura W50 Nanao |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Rinko Matsuda W35 Kyoto |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Haruna Arakawa W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/09 | Kayo Nishimura W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/09 | Yujia Huang W50 Guiyang |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Funa Kozaki W75 Tianjin |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Priska Madelyn Nugroho W15 Tianjin |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Ya-Yi Yang W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Ena Shibahara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Alycia Parks WTA Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 20/10 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Osaka · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 11/10 | Naho Sato W35 Wagga Wagga |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/10 | I Wen Wan W35 Wagga Wagga |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/10 | Mutsumi Uemura W35 Wagga Wagga |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/10 | Monique Barry W35 Wagga Wagga |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/10 | Ya-Yi Yang W35 Wagga Wagga |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 19/09 | Jia-Jing Lu W35 Kyoto |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Natsuki Yoshimoto W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Yuno Kitahara W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Ena Shibahara?
Our model gives 69% to Ena Shibahara, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.