Tennis · UTR Pro Knoxville Women · 30/10, 19:00
Prediction: Francesca Mattioli vs Lisa Kamigata
Team pages: Francesca Mattioli · Lisa Kamigata
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Mattioli
Lisa Kamigata
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Mattioli
6-4 (W-L)
Lisa Kamigata
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Mattioli 1514 · Lisa Kamigata 1472
| Francesca Mattioli | Lisa Kamigata | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesca Mattioli (rating 1514 vs 1472).
- Note: Francesca Mattioli makes many double faults (7.7/match).
Statistics
| Francesca Mattioli | Lisa Kamigata | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.2 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-13.6 | 11.1-10 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 7.7 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 61% | 62.2% |
| Break % | 52.8% | 55.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Mattioli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Kaya Moe UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 28/10 | Saray Yli-Piipari UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/10 | Kaede Usui UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 09/10 | Edda Mamedova W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 08/10 | Victoria Bosio W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/10 | Duru Soke W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 06/10 | Anita Sahdiieva W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Rose Marie Nijkamp W15 Nashville |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 30/09 | Eva Maria Ionescu W15 Nashville |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 11/09 | Riley Crowder UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Lisa Kamigata
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Ava Esposito Cogan UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/10 | Alyson Shannon UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 27/10 | Gabia Paskauskas UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-7 | W |
| 12/09 | Saray Yli-Piipari UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Alice Soulie UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 09/09 | Stefani Webb UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/09 | Julia Zhu UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Chiara Di Genova UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/05 | Shiho Tsujioka W15 Toyama · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Minami Suzuki W15 Toyama · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Mattioli vs Lisa Kamigata?
Our model gives 64% to Francesca Mattioli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.