Tennis · M25 Norman · 29/10, 18:00
Prediction: Luca Pow vs Aidan Mchugh
Team pages: Luca Pow · Aidan Mchugh
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Pow
Aidan Mchugh
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Pow
4-6 (W-L)
Aidan Mchugh
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Pow 1502 · Aidan Mchugh 1577
| Luca Pow | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mchugh (rating 1502 vs 1577).
- Aidan Mchugh is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Luca Pow makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Luca Pow | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10.7 | 11.8-8 |
| Aces | 2 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 4 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.8% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 42% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Pow
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Kriish Tyagi M25 Norman |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 27/10 | Viktor Markov M25 Norman |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Ozan Baris M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Benjamin Thomas George M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 16/07 | Millen Hurrion M25 Louisville |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Jerry Roddick M25 Louisville |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Gavin Young M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Jagger Leach M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Stian Klaassen M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Aidan Mchugh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Alejandro Melero Kretzer M25 Norman |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/10 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Karl Poling M25 Austin |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Martin Riu M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/09 | Samir Banerjee M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/09 | Alexandre Reco M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/09 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra M25 Nevers |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 16/09 | Valentin Lapalu M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Pow vs Aidan Mchugh?
Our model gives 59% to Aidan Mchugh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.