Tennis · UTR Pro Knoxville · 29/10, 19:00
Prediction: Alejandro Moreno vs Adrien Jonah Abarca
Team pages: Alejandro Moreno · Adrien Jonah Abarca
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Moreno
Adrien Jonah Abarca
Estimated games
19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Moreno
4-6 (W-L)
Adrien Jonah Abarca
1-9 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alejandro Moreno
1–0
Adrien Jonah Abarca
(1 last)
- 30 May2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Moreno 1494 · Adrien Jonah Abarca 1385
| Alejandro Moreno | Adrien Jonah Abarca | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alejandro Moreno (rating 1494 vs 1385).
- Alejandro Moreno is in better form: 40% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alejandro Moreno 1–0 Adrien Jonah Abarca (1).
Statistics
| Alejandro Moreno | Adrien Jonah Abarca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 10% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 0.4-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.2-9.9 | 6-12.6 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 67.1% | 55.7% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 21% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.5
H2H · Alejandro Moreno 1 – 0 Adrien Jonah Abarca (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alejandro Moreno 1–0 Adrien Jonah Abarca
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/25 UTR Pro Knoxville | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Moreno
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Thomas Cardona Herrera UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 27/10 | Birtan Duran UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/10 | Marko Mesarovic M15 Lexington |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Hugo Coquelin M15 Ann Arbor |
0-2 | 3-9 | L |
| 12/09 | Martin Doskocil UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/09 | Shion Itsusaki UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/09 | Joaquin Benoit UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Carlos Victor Ferreira Gonzales UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/09 | Leo Pade UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Jon Gamble M25 Southaven |
0-2 | 4-9 | L |
Adrien Jonah Abarca
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Birtan Duran UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/10 | Thomas Cardona Herrera UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Denny Bao UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Woodson Mcmillin UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 11/09 | Birtan Duran UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Aleksandr Kalinin UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Diego Duran UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Alan Bojarski UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Evan Sharygin UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Shaan Patel UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Moreno vs Adrien Jonah Abarca?
Our model gives 79% to Alejandro Moreno, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.